Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Indian Wells, Marketa Vondrousova vs Rebecca Marino
Marketa Vondrousova vs Rebecca Marino Best Bet: Thursday, March 9th
Tough with one Irina Camelia Begu on Wednesday. The Romanian led early on by a break of serve and had a set point in the first-set tiebreak before dropping the set. She picked up a slight issue with her ankle early in the second and that’s all she wrote.
For Thursday’s first-round matchup on the women’s side, let’s delve into the contest between Marketa Vondrosouva and Rebecca Marino.
In this article:
Marketa Vondrousova vs Rebecca Marino Preview
March 9th, 20:30 (UK Time)
I have to preface this preview by saying as a Canadian tennis fan, it’s been great to see Marino return to the game and grind her way back up to the top-75.
Hard courts are her preferred surface, but the courts in Indian Wells are a nightmare for her. Worse yet, she has to play Vondrousova, who is excellent across surfaces, a very consistent baseliner and a far better player in general.
Nightmare matchup on nightmare courts for the Vancouver native here.
Much like the preview against Daria Kasatkina (where we won the -3 games wager), I’m going to back the consistent baseliner who can wear Marino down and exploit her lack of movement.
The difference here is that Vondrousova is better at backing up her serve, has a bit more offensive ability in her game, and she isn’t likely to leave nearly as many balls short and central for Marino to hit through as Kasatkina did.
Marino’s tendency to play aggressive tennis and hit plenty of winners, as well as unforced errors is a tough way to approach a match like this. The courts, along with your opponent are likely to take a bite into the winner count you’d expect at another venue and against another player. The unforced errors? Those aren’t likely to drop – in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number increase since there should be more extended rallies.
Marino’s best bet would be to force the issue by coming to the net and letting points get dragged out. Problem is, she doesn’t have the foot speed to get to the net efficiently, which leaves her exposed to passing shots. Even if she did, she’s playing one of the better passers in the game who can hit with depth and into the outer thirds of the court with consistency from both wings.
Marketa Vondrousova vs Rebecca Marino Best Bet
Ultimately, I’m not sure how this handicap is only -4 games at 1.85 odds. I have this number closer to -5 at 1.80 odds, which is a significant difference.
Perhaps I’m overlooking something, and the Czech does have the tendency to occasionally display some poor body language on court, but man, this number just feels too far off for the given matchup.
I’m happy to continue staking large on these writeups until the market adjusts to just how slow the courts are in the desert.
- Selection: Vondrousova -4 Games
- Best Odds: 1.81 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 8/10
Odds as at 1:30 am on March 9th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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