tennis | Wednesday, February 8, 2023 10:36 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Linz, Marketa Vondrousova vs Rebeka Masarova

Jon Reid

Marketa Vondrousova vs Rebeka Masarova Best Bet: Wednesday, February 8th

Well, let’s just say that bet was as close as they come. The most surprising part? We were on the winning side of it. You love to see it! Rebeka Masasrova blew a plethora of chances in that deciding set, before finally clinching it in a third-set tiebreak from 3-5 down.

For Wednesday, we’ll go back to a match featuring Masarova, as she takes on Marketa Vondrousova in the second match on Court 1.

In this article:

Marketa Vondrousova vs Rebeka Masarova Preview
Marketa Vondrousova vs Rebeka Masarova Best Bet

Marketa Vondrousova vs Rebeka Masarova Preview

February 8th, 12:30 (UK Time)

It’s a totally different kind of opponent on Wednesday for the tall, big-serving Spaniard, as she goes from the big-hitting of Ekaterina Alexandrova, to the tactical, clever play of Vondrousova.

In fact, where Alexandrova could be rushed by the pace Masarova can generate with her serve and forehand on these quicker courts, the athletic Vondrousova welcomes it. She looks to take that pace and redirect it back into open space to seize control of the points.

From there, she’s incredibly adept at moving the ball around the court from both wings, being able to generate angles or go down-the-line with both the backhand and forehand. That can spell disaster for a poor mover like Masarova, who is going to have to move a lot more to get to balls than she did on Tuesday.

Considering Masarova is coming off a battle that lasted over 2.5 hours on Tuesday, and was hunched over at several points in the third set gasping for air, I’m not sold that her movement or endurance are up to the task of dealing with her Czech counterpart.

Her lefty game is also well-suited to take advantage of the crosscourt rallies into Masarova’s weaker backhand side, giving her another potential matchup advantage.

From a statistical standpoint, Vondrousova holds a massive lead in hard-court elo rating (a whopping 182-point differential). She’s also 20 points clear on the hold plus break percentage front – despite having played much stronger opposition over the last year (reflected in the aforementioned elo rating).

Other than a potential scheduling conflict (more on that in a moment), I don’t see what there is to like for Masarova in this matchup, beyond her first serve.

Marketa Vondrousova vs Rebeka Masarova Best Bet

Considering how well Vondrousova matches up here, the talent and quality gap (especially when measured for quality of opposition played) between the players and the exhaustion that Masarova was contending with towards the end of her match Tuesday, I have to back the Czech in this spot.

In fact, without any other factors taken into consideration, I’d have a rather large stake on Vondrousova. Problem is, the 23-year-old is scheduled to play Doha qualifiers on the weekend, and with that event holding more prestige, money and rankings points, we may see a half-hearted effort from her here.

That may be enough to keep some off the bet, but I still believe the value is too strong here to pass up. She could always bail out or withdraw leading into her Friday quarterfinal instead. There’s also the possibility she sees this event as one she can win and it being an easier route to rebuilding her ranking with 280 points (the title would lift her from the 85th range to about 50th) and elects to make a run at the title here and head to the middle east next week.

Ultimately, I’ll split my stake here between the handicap and the under. The latter because if we do see haphazard play from Vondrousova, a second set tank would be likely. If she is motivated to take down this tournament, she should be able to defeat a tired Masarova in relatively straightforward fashion. Happy to diversify my risk here.