Fabian Marozsan vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/21/24

The first preview for Thursday from the Miami Open features a player I opposed a few days back, but think is undervalued this go around. Let’s look at my Marozsan vs Kovacevic prediction from the ATP draw’s opening round. Kovacevic is valued in the betting markets to win 43.5% of the time, while Marozsan is favored to win at 1.67 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 23.

For Jon Reid’s other two previews from Thursday’s action, be sure to head on over to the Expert Insights section!

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Marozsan vs Kovacevic Prediction: Americans Undervalued in Favourable Conditions

• Prediction: Kovacevic to win
• Best Odds: 2.30
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on March 21st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

As much as I didn’t believe that Kovacevic should’ve been the favorite in his last match, I feel like on a quicker court playing against an opponent like Marozsan, I don’t think he should be an underdog.

In his first full season on the main tour, Marozsan has shown that as much as he can stick with players at this level on slower surfaces, he still needs a bit of an adjustment period on quicker courts, where the pace of play still seems to be a tad much – particularly on return.

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Fabian Marozsan Recent Form

As I mentioned above, evaluating the Hungarian’s form really depends on what tournaments you’re looking at. Sure, he’s coming off his best tournament so far in 2024 as he reached the fourth round in Indian Wells before falling to Carlos Alcaraz, but those courts, despite playing a tad quicker this season, are much more to his liking.

Even there, he needed an incredibly improbable comeback against Nicolas Jarry (from 3-6, 0-3 down) to get out of the second round.

Other than that, he’s just 4-6 on the year, 4-7 if you include the Davis Cup. Not the most impressive record. Throw in the fact that his wins came against Gael Monfils and then an out-of-form Francisco Cerundolo, still-returning Marin Cilic, and Vit Kopriva and it becomes even more concerning.

I don’t think that’s an issue of quality, however. For me, that’s due more to the fact that the 24-year-old still struggles in quicker conditions when it comes to returning serve and the lack of time he has off the ground to set up and execute his shots.

If he were to be pitted against someone with less power on both their serve and groundstrokes, that may be a bit less of a concern come Thursday. Forced to square off against the big-serving Kovacevic? That’s a tough weakness to cope with.

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Aleksandar Kovacevic Recent Form

On the flip side of the surface speed preference spectrum, we have the American, who has always preferred slightly quicker courts where he can dominate with his serve and plus-one forehands, ending points quickly and applying scoreboard pressure to his opponents to keep up on serve.

We’ve actually seen him play a bit more proficiently recently on slower surfaces as well, with impressive performances in both Los Cabos and Acapulco during the quick Mexican hardcourt swing that tends to play in much slower conditions and later on in the day (which also tends to slow things down a bit).

I detailed a bit the other day that Kovacevic has improved the reliability of his backhand and his rally tolerance has also taken a step forward. I still think the one-handed backhand can look vulnerable at times and against bigger servers and hitters, but in a matchup like this where I’d expect him to apply a bit more pressure on return than he’ll face in his own service games, I don’t think it should be too much of a concern.

It might’ve taken Kovacevic a bit longer to break into the top 100 than he would’ve liked, but he’s done so by grinding out wins on the Challenger circuit and then at 250 events and in parts of the world where the fields may be a tad weaker. That’s proven fruitful for him, as he’s been able to develop his game and work his way to a top-100 ranking.

A win on Thursday and he should jump a few more spots up the rankings to further solidify his place in that group.

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Marozsan vs Kovacevic H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings between these two long-time Challenger Tour guys who now find themselves competing regularly on the main tour.

So far this year these two have nearly identical hold plus break percentages in the 97% range with Marozsan being a slight 18 points ahead in the blended hard court elo ratings.

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