Matteo Martineau vs Mattia Bellucci Prediction, Picks, Form, H2H, May 20th

The ATP Tour has a few stops this week, but we also have qualifying starting up from Roland Garros as the year’s second grand slam is just around the corner. Let’s take a look at Matteo Martineau vs Mattia Bellucci in a clash of tennis styles on the red dirt. Our Martineau vs Bellucci prediction is available below!

Bellucci’s win probability comes in at 51.1% with Martineau at 1.82 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Martineau vs Bellucci Prediction: Back More Natural Clay Courter in Bellucci

• Prediction: Bellucci to win
• Best Odds: 1.96
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on May 20th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

go with our tip at UnibetA nice situational spot to back Bellucci here against a Martineau that is still much better indoors and on a hard court with a flatter, aggressive forehand, the desire to come to the net, and a serve-oriented game.

I think his 7-8 record on the dirt (which isn’t even good) may have the market believing that he’s improving, but we’ll get into why that record is a bit of a mirage in a minute.

Context is key and his unimpressive record becomes even less so when you factor in who he’s played.

Bellucci has had trouble sustaining success of late, but the angles he produces, the fact he can work all parts of the court, and his consistency along with the spin he employs to add margin for error to his game all make him more suited to success on a slower clay court.

I have him as a favorite and am happy to back him here, even if he’s had just one warm-up tournament on the clay this spring. Our Martineau vs Bellucci prediction is for Bellucci to win.

Check out our Jan Choinski vs Denis Kudla preview for French Open qualifying over on the Expert Insights page.

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Matteo Martineau Recent Form

I alluded to the Frenchman’s form perhaps not being as good as his seven-win total would imply (and even then, his record was pretty poor leading into this week).

His first clay win of 2024 was against Mate Valkusz. The Hungarian is a decent player, but often injured and that was the case in that match as he fell apart physically after taking the opening set from Martineau.

From there he beat the soon-to-be-retired Alessandro Giannessi, Franco Agamenone (whom he had to save match points against), the weaponless Geoffrey Blancaneaux and Gabriel Debru, hard courter Aleksandar Kovacevic, and Henri Squire.

That is not an impressive list by any means.

His movement is not his strong suit, and that could also be a problem from a matchup perspective against someone who spreads the court as well his Italian counterpart coming to net against someone with precise groundstrokes on a slow surface also seems like a bad idea – neutralizing another one of his strengths.

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Mattia Bellucci Recent Form

After an incredibly poor 2-6 start to his 2024 campaign, the Italian lefty has started to turn things around, lifting his ranking back up inside the top 180 and only about 35 spots from his career high.

Rather than play the clay swing on the Challenger circuit in Europe (where it is much tougher competition-wise), the 22-year-old decided to head to Asia and ply his trade on the quicker hard courts over there. He did manage one quarterfinal appearance, but the last two weeks didn’t go as planned and he only left himself with one week to get some clay tennis in before this week.

At the very least, he entered qualifying for the big Turin Challenger 175 and managed to beat both Ivan Gakhov (a sneaky good clay court tennis player) and Alexis Galarneau (a Canadian hard courter whose style allows him to find success on the red stuff as he gains more experience).

The key to those matches was that he wasn’t given favorite status in the first and then barely a favorite against Galarneau, who he beat soundly in the second and third sets after losing a tiebreak in the opener.

Losing to compatriot Francesco Maestrelli wasn’t pretty, but Maestrelli did have the ability to overpower him and was himself an effective clay courter, making that a tough matchup at an event hit hard by rain.

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Martineau vs Bellucci H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have met twice this season, splitting matches indoors in Nottingham and Pau at the Challenger level. The thing is, indoor hard courts shift things significantly in Martineau’s favor, with his big serve and aggressive style being far more effective there.

With Bellucci undervalued several times already this clay season, I’m content betting on the market not having caught up to his abilities and continuing to undervalue him.

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