Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert U.S. Open Preview and Expert Tip: Humbert to Push Big Serving Italian

Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert (U.S. Open): Tuesday, August 29th

Easy win for Hugo Gaston, who absolutely dominated 85% of that match against Sho Shimabukuro, before struggling a tad to close things out.

For Tuesday’s ATP preview (though the U.S. Open isn’t governed by the ATP) from the U.S. Open, we’ll preview Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert in first-round action.

In this article:

• Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert Expert Tip
• Matteo Berrettini Recent Form
• Ugo Humbert Recent Form
• Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

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Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert Expert Tip

Though they may not spell their names the same way, I’m going to go ahead and back a Frenchman named Ugo for the second consecutive day.

This time around, however, we get Humbert, who plays a totally different style of tennis from his compatriot Gaston.

I’m not sure why Berrettini is still seeing this kind of respect in the markets, after all the struggles he’s had in 2023 coming back from injury (more on that in a second).

Not only is Humbert in better form and able to stick with the Italian on serve, but from everything we’ve seen in the last little while, he’s far better equipped to deal with a potentially long match that the best-of-five set format can lead to.

If you offered me 2.25 on the Frenchman here I’d take it. At 2.50, I have no hesitation.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Humbert to win at 2.50 with Pinnacle, using 5/10 stakes.

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Matteo Berrettini Recent Form

This is the key to my scepticism in Berrettini.

His 2023 campaign has been incredibly pedestrian, and his summer hard-court form has done nothing to disprove the doubt.

He’s beaten a terribly out-of-form Gregoire Barrere and has a loss to the slumping Felix Auger Aliassime. Outside of that, his only other match was a fairly routine defeat at the hands of Jannik Sinner.

There is nothing to suggest his return game is coming back – especially against a server of Humbert’s quality – and his serve has been far from impenetrable of late.

Without that serve clicking and being nearly impossible to break, Berrettini is vulnerable to even slightly above-average tour-level pros. His return game and his movement have never been his calling cards, and I’m happy to oppose him while he’s still in this rut.

Ugo Humbert Recent Form

On the flip side, Humbert has actually been pretty strong this summer. He made a very nice run in Atlanta, losing only to the surprise package of the summer hard-court swing in Aleksandar Vukic (and from a setup, no less).

His other losses? Taylor Fritz – one of the elite players in the game – in three sets and Tommy Paul (a player many believe is the favourite to win the third quarter and make a deep run over the course of the next fortnight).

Combine that with his booming lefty serve, strong, flat forehand and his much more competent movement, and you’ve got the recipe for an “upset.” I use the quotation marks simply because I only believe it’d be an upset in terms of the odds. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see him take this match down.

Matteo Berrettini vs Ugo Humbert H2H – Stat of the Match

Berrettini has played Humbert three times, with the only two meetings since 2020 both going his way.

That said, in the five sets played, none were won by a score more lopsided than 6-4 and two of the five ended up requiring a tiebreak.

The caveat? Those matches were both before the Berrettini injury. Considering how close those matches were when Berrettini was a much stronger player than he is currently, not only am I not discouraged by the head-to-head, I actually think in context it provides some encouragement.

Odds as at 3:45 am UK Time on August 29th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING

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