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What a wonderful time of the year. Just before summer turns to fall, we have the final grand slam event on the tennis calendar, and the first weeks are always fun. Loaded with 128 matches in two days between the men’s and women’s draws, there is always value to be found in the opening round.
For our men’s selection on Monday, we look to a match that may not pique the interest of many, but presents a decent chance to find some value between Pedro Cachin and Aljaz Bedene.
In this article:
August 29th, Time TBD
As alluded to above, this is going to be one of the more unheralded matches of the first round. Two guys known for playing on clay courts and Bedene with a poor record this season (more on that in a minute) and already having announced his retirement to pursue a different career (football agent) after this season, there isn’t much that is likely to draw fans on-site to this match.
That said, I do believe the wrong man is favoured in this match. There is no doubting how strong Cachin has been this year. He’s been one of the stars of the Challenger Tour – collecting four trophies and reaching an additional three finals. The caveat? All of those were on clay courts. In fact, Cachin has played 53 matches on clay this year (plus six more club matches) to just four on hard courts. With no notable opponent in those handful of matches, it’s tough to really credit his form with being a deserved favourite in this opening round encounter.
As for Bedene, while he also prefers the red dirt courts, he’s far more proficient at the game’s highest level on hard courts. He also possesses a better serve than Cachin and his forehand has enough pace to be effective.
He’s also run into some tough draws this season, having played 75% of his matches as an underdog of 2.50 or greater. He’s won two of those and pushed players like Lorenzo Musetti to three sets and Fabio Fognini to a third set tiebreak in a few others.
With neither guys posting the most impressive hard-court statistics, I think backing the underdog here with more experience and a better game for hard courts playing his final event at one of the four biggest events the sport has to offer is the right move.
Odds as at 09:30 am on August 29th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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