tennis | Monday, August 29, 2022 8:29 AM

Monday Tennis Best Bet: US Open Women, Rebecca Marino vs Magdalena Frech

Jon Reid

Rebecca Marino vs Magdalena Frech Best Bet: Monday, August 29th

It’s the final slam of the season and we’re ready to get going, with the first-round matches coming fast and furious in the next few days. 64 matches featuring 128 women will take place between Monday and Tuesday.

Let’s dig into Monday’s selection from the women’s draw, which pits Rebecca Marino against Magdalena Frech.

In this article:

Rebecca Marino vs Magdalena Frech Preview
Rebecca Marino vs Magdalena Frech Best Bet

Rebecca Marino vs Magdalena Frech Preview

August 29th, Time TBD

An intriguing matchup on the Monday slate, with these two playing opposite styles.

With Marino the tall, big serving, power-oriented player and Frech possessing a decent first serve, but from the baseline being far more about moving the ball around the courts and to the outer thirds and using a variety of shots to keep her opposition off balance, it’ll be about who can execute their gameplan that determines who advances to the tournament’s second round.

For my money, a few things tilt this one in the underdog’s favour.

For starters, with moving the ball side to side being one of her strengths, she’s poised to be able to take advantage of Marino’s poor movement, constantly keeping her on the run and forcing her to hit more defensive shots, not allowing her to strike the ball with nearly as much power. Frech is also adept when it comes to playing at net, so even if Marino is able to track down several shots, Frech can come in and take the ball earlier to take time away from the Canadian.

Secondly, Frech also employs an incredibly effective slice on her backhand wing. This is particularly important against Marino, who’s height means a lower-bouncing ball can be really tricky to deal with. Slices are also more effective against power players, as they require a bit less aggression to effectively put back over the net. Overhitting can result in either netting the next shot or sailing a shot long.

Rebecca Marino vs Magdalena Frech Best Bet

With the qualitative side of things pointing squarely to the underdog in this matchup, it stands to reason the more data-based handicap would favour the big-hitting Marino.

That, however, isn’t the case. The elo ratings on hard courts show only a 20-point edge to the Vancouver native, which translates to a near 50/50 probability.

As good as it is to see Marino back on tour and making a push to return to the top-100, this matchup is a really tough one for her, and I’ll be taking a position backing the Pole.