tennis | Monday, August 15, 2022 10:19 AM

Monday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Cincinnati, Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova

Jon Reid

Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Best Bet: Monday, August 15th

Well last week’s selections went pretty well on the women’s side, losing just twice, with one of those (Qinwen Zheng) being five points from victory at 6-4, 4-4* 30-40. Let’s try and replicate that this week at the tour shifts to another 1000-series event in Cincinnati.

For Monday’s selection from the women’s draw, we’ll delve into a match between Leylah Fernandez and the hard-hitting Ekaterina Alexandrova.

In this article:

Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Preview
Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Best Bet

Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Preview

August 15th, 19:00 (UK Time)

It was a mixed bag return to the tour for the young Canadian sensation, as she resumed play for the first time in a few months on home soil in Toronto.

After winning her first match against fellow southpaw Storm Sanders (albeit in three sets), she pushed eventual finalist (and another fellow lefty) Beatriz Haddad Maia in the opener, before running out of answers for the big-serving and consistent Brazilian in the second set.

While the reigning U.S. Open finalist, Fernandez still doesn’t appear to be 100% in terms of match fitness (not a surprise after just five sets of play after a few months off), her ball retrieval and defensive abilities still impressed. It was the lack of pace on her groundstrokes and serve that was more evident in her second match.

With Alexandrova having built some impressive form since Charleston all the way back in April on clay and grass, and her ability to punish tennis balls with incredible power, this will be a tall task for the Montreal native.

The Russian may not have been able to play at Wimbledon and may not have played since grass season, but hard courts are her preferred surface, and the notably quick court speeds in Cincinnati should reward her aggression.

Statistically, these two are relatively close together in both elo rating and hold plus break percentage. Keeping in mind, much of that success for Fernandez over the last 52 weeks comes from her run at the U.S. Open (nearly a year in the rearview mirror now) and on slow courts at a small event in Mexico, I’m more inclined to trust her rusty form and poor play on comparable quick courts in Australia than the data that the books and market are using to deem her the favourite.

Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Best Bet

With Alexandrova having a strong season, back on her favourite courts, and the speeds clearly favouring her as well, I’m more than happy to back her at an underdog price.

As alluded to, the pricing appears to be heavily reliant on the fact that Fernandez has a slight edge in elo rating and hold plus break percentage. I don’t think they’ve accounted for court speeds, or recent form shining some holes in the young gun’s game as she looks to build back her form after an injury absence ahead of the U.S. Open.

I’ll take the underdog here. Would have the stakes even higher had Alexandrova played some tennis on tour in the last two months.