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An absolute whiff on the bet with Karolina Muchova on Thursday, who was never ahead of Irina Begu and didn’t look like she’d win, let alone cover the four-game handicap.
Onto the second week, where a champion will be crowned at the prestigious 1000-level event.
For Monday’s article, let’s take a deeper look into the match between Paula Badosa and Maria Sakkari.
In this article:
May 1st, 15:00 (UK Time)
It’ll be one of the feature matches from Manolo Santana (the primary show court in Madrid) on Monday when these two go at it.
The Spanish No. 1 is looking to continue the rebuild of her ranking that has dipped to 42 (though at the moment, she’s set to jump several spots with the points earned so far this tournament).
It hasn’t been easy for Badosa, who has actually played some really impressive tennis this season, but has seen a slew of really tough draws that have resulted in early exits from big events.
Consider this, the 25-year-old is playing her fifth event (all at the 500 level or higher) since the start of March, and has only been eliminated by Aryna Sabalenka (the Australian Open champion), Elena Rybakina (the defending Wimbledon champion, Australian Open finalist and Indian Wells champion) and Jessica Pegula (a top-5 mainstay over the last year) in that timeframe.
Even then, she had Rybakina on the ropes in one of their two meetings and was up a set and a break in Stuttgart against Sabalenka.
She is athletic, hits hard from the baseline, has a strong serve and is strong on just about every surface.
It shouldn’t be surprising that she’s looked formidable in the last few weeks, dominating a top-10 talent in Daria Kasatkina, dispatching Cristina Bucsa with ease, thumping Coco Gauff – a top-10 player in the rankings, and only losing the aforementioned match to Sabalenka.
Sakkari is a strong player in her own right, possessing a well-rounded game as well, but her consistency from the baseline abandons her for stretches, and she often finds herself flustered and shouting at her team in her player box.
I have Badosa able to dictate play here a bit more, while also being in better form when you break down recent results and she’s also the more consistent player for my money.
When it comes to the betting markets, I think Badosa being a strong favourite is the right call.
As always, however, I do disagree with how much of a favourite the Spaniard should be.
I have her as a -4-game favourite on the handicap, where the market has assessed her as a cheap -3.5 games or slightly expensive -3.
I’ll happily take 1.82 odds for the even -3 games, and back one of the best players in the world at the moment.
Odds as at 2:00 am on May 1st, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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