tennis | Monday, July 11, 2022 7:21 AM (Revised at: Monday, July 11, 2022 11:42 AM)

Monday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Bastad , July 11th

Jon Reid

ATP Bastad BEST BET: DELBONIS vs KOTOV

Monday, July 11th, 10:00 UK Time

It’s back to the main tours for the next few months, after a whirlwind stretch that saw two of the year’s four biggest events take place in under two months.

This week, the ATP Tour heads to Bastad, Sweden and Newport in the United States for a pair of 250-level tournaments.

Monday’s selection on the men’s side comes from the European event, as Argentine Federico Delbonis takes on the tricky Pavel Kotov.

The markets have priced this one up with the veteran clay-court specialist as the favourite, likely due to his reputation on the dirt and Kotov being relatively unknown at this level.

I’m in disagreement with that assessment, however, primarily because Delbonis has been positively awful in 2022. The 31-year-old hasn’t won back-to-back matches since February and is on pace for his first losing season on clay in over a decade.

While those aren’t reasons to oppose him on their own, they certainly illustrate his struggles this season and outline just how poor his form has been.

As for Kotov, the relatively young Russian may not be an established ATP Tour player just yet, but he has a deceptively strong game but lacks a bit in the mental toughness department.

At 1.91 metres tall, Kotov has a strong first serve that has helped him find success this season on indoor hard courts (a 7-3 record and Challenger Tour title) and the incredible rally tolerance and ball-retrieval defensive abilities to succeed on clay (14-5 record and two top-tier Challenger Tour semifinals).

The Russian can also move the ball around the court and play with variety, adding a nice dynamism to his game.

With Delbonis able to hit with pace and topspin, but not overwhelming power, it’s hard to see him being able to keep points short and hit through both the clay and Kotov’s defences. With his play this season having been erratic, Kotov’s ability to prolong points could also pose problems.

Finally, keep an eye on the wind. With it expected to be blowing between 15 and 20 kilometres per hour around the time the match is slated to begin, it could play a role as well, with Delbonis possessing one of the highest ball tosses for his serve on the men’s tour.

I’m going to back the underdog to pull off the small upset in this one.