tennis | Monday, June 13, 2022 7:42 AM

Monday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Halle, June 13th

Jon Reid

ATP Halle Best Bet: Ivashka vs Struff

Monday, June 13th, 16:30 UK Time

Another match featuring Jan Lennard Struff and another match where the bookmakers and market have the game total set below 23.5.

While it’s not the trend that is the reason for the bet, it’s the reason the trend exists in the first place. Struff isn’t much of a returner, but his massive serve and forehand combination play really well on the grass. The big German is also adept at serve-and-volleying – a tactic of old-time tennis that still works well on the lawns.

In his five sets of tennis on grass so far this season, Struff has seen each of them reach at least 12 games. Even in straight set matches, the total here should be set at a relatively expensive 23.5 games.

In each of those matches, Struff was also a sizable underdog to win the match outright as well. Books are clearly taking their time adjusting to his play on the grass being good enough on serve alone to keep his matches very close.

The man on the other side of the net is also a solid server and ball striker from the baseline. While he’s played fewer 12-game sets and tiebreaks so far on grass (just two of his seven sets have reached the 12-game mark), it’s worth noting that the only comparable serve to Struff’s he’s taken on ended up in a 7-6, 6-4 match against Russian Daniil Medvedev.

Statistically, these two also check all the boxes you’d like to see when betting overs as well. Over the last 52 weeks on grass, they’ve both won over 75% of points behind their first serves, 50% behind second serves and held serve at a rate of over 85%.

With Struff able to mask his unforced errors by coming to net and shortening points, along with his lacklustre returning skills and strong serve, the over being set at just 23 games is once again a position worth staking.

I wouldn’t mind a smaller staking on Struff to win either, with him continuing to keep matches very close, despite being consistently priced in the 2.50 to 3.00 range.