Monday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Wimbledon, June 27th

ATP Wimbledon BEST BET: SINNER VS WAWRINKA

Monday, June 27th, 14:30 UK Time

In what could be considered one of the better matches of the opening day of Wimbledon, young Italian Jannik Sinner takes on veteran wild-card entry Stanislas Wawrinka.

With the bookmakers and market having Sinner as a clear favourite in this matchup, on grass, I think this one is much closer than the odds would suggest, for a few reasons.

For starters, Sinner isn’t the most proficient returner on the surface. Nor is he the most adept at moving around on the slicker grass courts. These two factors, combined with Wawrinka’s strong first serve and powerful groundstrokes should allow the Swiss to keep things close and potentially push his younger counterpart to four or five sets – with a few long, serve-oriented sets along the way.

With Sinner’s hold plus break percentage over the last 52 weeks coming in at under 90% and under 100% for his career, it’s hard to justify having him as an overwhelming favourite in this matchup, especially considering the aforementioned matchup concerns. His career record on the grass is also subpar and he’s only played a singular match on the lawns in 2022 (a loss to Tommy Paul).

On the flip side, despite the grass-court experience and pedigree edge for the veteran, he also struggled on return in his two matches at Queen’s Club this season.

With the best-of-five sets format potentially causing issues for Wawrinka in terms of endurance (though the shorter grass points should allow for the energy reserves to last a little longer), I’d much prefer the over games market here to the plus games handicap, in case Wawrinka does take the match four or five sets and lose a lopsided decider.

That said, both the over games market and the Wawrinka to win market present some value in this opening round encounter.

• Selection: Over 38.5 games
• Odds: 1.83 (Bet365)
• Stakes: 3/10
• Bonus selection: Wawrinka to win, with 2/10 stakes at 3.50 odds with Pinnacle

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More tips for SINNER VS WAWRINKA

Odds are valid as of 10:30 am on 27th June 2022. Odds may now differ. 

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