tennis | Monday, May 23, 2022 7:18 AM (Revised at: Monday, May 23, 2022 6:38 PM)

Monday's Tennis Best Bet: ATP French Open, May 23rd

Jon Reid

ATP French Open Best Bet: Rinderknech vs Bublik

Monday, May 23rd, 16:00* (UK Time)

A few weeks’ worth of selections on clay all leading up to this week in Paris for the French Open from Roland Garros. With plenty of matches to choose from each day throughout the opening week, there is sure to be some value to attack.

The first match of the tournament to discuss is that of Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech, taking on fellow big man and big server, Alexander Bublik. A few reasons to like this matchup.

First and foremost, there’s the angle of opposing Bublik on clay. It’s not just that his style doesn’t match up well, or that he didn’t grow up on the courts, thus, his comfort level isn’t there, but it comes down to the fact that he has openly said – whether on the court or in post-match interviews – that he despises playing on the red dirt. Considering this is a significant event on the tennis calendar, it’s doubtful that he’ll be tanking from the start with money and points up for grabs, but it could also be reasoned that he hates being on the court for two or three sets, let alone the potential to be out there for four or five.

While that is a good starting point, it’s always advisable to have a competent player on the other side of the net to back as well. Unlike his fellow serve-oriented countryman, Ugo Humbert, Rinderknech doesn’t have as much trouble adapting to the higher-bouncing, slower conditions on clay.

Dating back to the week before the French last season, Rinderknech has made a pair of ATP Tour level quarterfinals and another semifinal. His losses? To the likes of Cameron Norrie, Laslo Djere and Casper Ruud.

So why the discount on his pricing against a self-professed clay hater? Likely his form this season, which has seen him lose both matches he’s played on the surface leading into the tournament. Yet, once again, take a look at who those losses came to. The ever-talented, if not mercurial Fabio Fognini (in three sets) and Holger Rune – one of the most talented young clay-court players in the world right now – in a pair of tiebreaks.

If we look at more quantifiable metrics, Rinderknech leads his Kazakh counterpart by over 80 points in the clay ratings and has a near 20% lead on Bublik in clay hold plus break percentages in the last 52 weeks. This one shouldn’t be particularly close.

The fact that the French crowds were so vocal on opening day supporting their countrymen and countrywomen should also help boost Rinderknech’s chances to not only win but cover the handicap.