Monday's Tennis Best Bet: ATP Lyon, May 16th

ATP Lyon Best Bet: Bedene vs Kwon

Monday, May 16th, approximately 10:00 (UK Time)

As the year’s second major nears, players will use this week to either build some form heading into Roland Garros or play in a 250-level event they otherwise would struggle to get into to earn some rankings points and money.

With the women playing in Strasbourg, France and Rabat, Morocco and the men playing in Lyon, France and Geneva, Switzerland, there should be some value to attack across the board.

For Monday’s match, the focus is on Lyon, where Aljaz Bedene continues his comeback from injury, as he takes on Soonwoo Kwon. The odds on the Slovenian veteran appear to be a bit long in this spot, considering the situation.

First, while Kwon has improved this season on the clay, it’s clear he’s still far more comfortable on hard courts. Bedene, on the other hand, has always been known as more of a clay courter. When looking to back an underdog, having an edge in terms of comfort on the surface is certainly a strong starting point.

Secondly, Kwon’s form – even with his improvement on clay – isn’t convincing enough to have him priced in the 1.40 range. He’s lost more matches than he’s won this season, and his four victories have come against the ever-mercurial Benoit Paire (twice), Ugo Humbert (who prefers quicker, lower-bouncing surfaces) and Juncheng Shang (one of the game’s better prospects, but still struggling to find his footing at the higher levels of the game).

With Bedene having looked healthy and past his injury in his last few matches, there shouldn’t be too much concern that he’s still only four matches back. Further, a victory isn’t even needed, as the market to win a set is showing plenty of value itself. If you’re feeling a bit riskier, the “to win” market being over 3.00 odds also seems too long.

• Selection: Bedene +1.5 sets
• Odds: 1.72 odds (Pinnacle)
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds current as of May 16th at 10:00 (UK Time)

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