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tennis | Monday, May 9, 2022 8:04 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, May 10, 2022 9:33 AM)

Monday's Tennis Best Bet: ATP Rome, May 9th

Monday's Tennis Best Bet: ATP Rome, May 9th
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ATP Rome Best Bet: Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs Tommy Paul

Monday, May 9th 14:30 (UK Time)

With Roland Garros just a matter of weeks away, the ATP and WTA Tours shift their focus to Rome, in what is arguably the most accurate test of the French Open’s top contenders. With the fields near full strength, and conditions that emulate those in Paris, everyone will be looking to build some form heading into the year’s second major.

Monday’s best bet features what could be a war of attrition between two solid baseliners in Albert Ramos Vinolas and Tommy Paul. With the prices on each about even, there is some value on the Spaniard for a few reasons.

First, while Paul is better off in slower conditions, his prowess on slower hard courts hasn’t yet translated into success on the red clay. In these types of matches, comfort on the playing surface could play a key role, and there’s no doubt that the veteran Spaniard holds the edge in that department.

Secondly, Ramos Vinolas’ form entering the event has been much better than that of his American counterpart. While Paul has registered just one set won in his last seven played, Ramos Vinolas has reached the third round in Monte Carlo – notching a win over Cameron Norrie along the way – and reached the semifinals in Estoril, losing to the eventual champion in Sebastian Baez. That’s just his European clay season to this point. Keep in mind, he also picked up a title earlier in the season in Argentina.

Finally, in terms of matchup analysis, Ramos Vinolas does a bit more than Paul in a match that could see many longer rallies. The veteran is more skilled at constructing points and moving his opponent back and forth along the baseline to open up space, before guiding his final shot into said open space to wrap up the point. Paul has the rally tolerance to stick with Ramos Vinolas, but he doesn’t gameplan nearly as well, looking for a way to finish the point.

In the end, Ramos Vinolas is just better at the margins in a match of players with similar styles of play.

  • Selection: Ramos Vinolas to win
  • Best Odds: 1.90 (bet365)
  • Stakes: 6/10

Odds as at 8pm May 8th 2022. Odds may now differ.

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