tennis | Sunday, May 29, 2022 7:47 PM (Revised at: Monday, May 30, 2022 7:39 PM)

Monday's Tennis Best Bet: French Open, May 30th

Jon Reid

ATP French Open Best Bet: Medvedev vs Cilic

Monday, May 30th, 19:45 (UK Time)

It’s back to the men’s draw for Monday’s selection, as the fourth round comes to a close and the last of the quarterfinalists will be set from Roland Garros.

There are plenty of intriguing matches on the men’s side, but the best bet is to back Daniil Medvedev, who continues to be stunningly undervalued in the markets.

Despite his disdain for playing on the red dirt, he’s actually really good at it. Since this time last year, Medvedev’s hold plus break percentage is over 115%. One can see why as well. His defensive baseline style, along with the ability to hit winners when chances present themselves off both the forehand and backhand wing, as well as his big serve all play well.

He’s added some spin to his forehand, as well, which has helped him develop into a better clay courter and his movement for his size is commendable.

Further, his form has been incredible this tournament, dispatching Facundo Bagnis, Laslo Djere and Miomir Kecmanovic – all of whom are very good clay-court players – in straight sets. It’s worth noting that Medvedev has also covered the games handicap by five games, 3.5 games and 7.5 games in his three matches to this point. That suggests that not only is he playing well, but the market is still playing catch-up.

As for the matchup, that works well for Medvedev as well. Marin Cilic has played well this tournament, but it’s worth noting that he played Attila Balazs on a protected ranking in the first round, dropped a set to Marton Fucsovics in the second and then beat up on an ageing and out-of-energy Gilles Simon in the third.

While his serve and forehand combo is strong, Medvedev’s length and ability to return even big first serves with depth neutralises much of the advantage Cilic has. If Medvedev can take away the ability to keep points short from Cilic, he will create plenty of opportunities to break the Croatian’s serve.

With a booming first serve of his own, his distinct advantage on return, in consistency from the baseline and in the movement department make Medvedev an even greater favourite than the handicap would suggest.