tennis | Monday, June 6, 2022 11:33 AM (Revised at: Monday, June 6, 2022 2:14 PM)

Monday's WTA Tennis Best Bet: Hertogenbosch, June 6th

Jon Reid

WTA Hertogenbosch Best Bet: Rogers vs Diatchenko

Monday, June 6th, 15:00 UK Time

With Roland Garros in the rearview mirror, the tennis season shifts to the grass in a total reversal in surface play. Where the slow, red clay rewards point construction and consistency, the grass is more kind to those with big serves, groundstrokes and players that like a much lower bouncing ball.

In Monday’s WTA selection from the Netherlands, it’s a matchup of two women who play that power game. Shelby Rogers enters as a sizable favourite in this matchup, and one can see why with her massive first serve and imposing forehand.

Her opponent, however, also profiles well on the slick grass surface. Vitalia Diatchenko may not possess the raw power of her American counterpart, but she can hold her own and is someone who does like the lower bounce that comes with grasscourt play.

With the Russian suited well to the surface, being able to hold her own in rallies and having a serve that is potent enough to find holds, it feels like the pricing in the betting markets has undervalued her in this spot.

By no means should she be the favourite to win, but to give her a five-game head start on the handicap is a bit much.

It’s not just that her serve can find her cheap points and holds in its own right, but also the fact that Rogers isn’t the greatest mover or returner and chasing down the re-directed pace is not her strong suit that helps level out this matchup.

Taking a look back at last season, Diatchenko managed a respectable 5-2 record on grass, with both losses coming to very good players in Emma Raducanu and Shuai Zhang – who thrives on quicker courts.

With both Raducanu and Zhang far more athletic and better on return than Rogers, it’s hard to make the case that the American should be a larger favourite than either of those women were against Diatchenko in 2021.