tennis | Monday, July 18, 2022 7:28 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, July 19, 2022 3:47 PM)

Tuesday's WTA Tennis Best Bet: Palermo, July 19th

Jon Reid

WTA Palermo BEST BET: PARRIZAS DIAZ vs MUHAMMAD

Tuesday, July 19th,16:15 (UK Time)

For our women’s selection on Tuesday, it’s off to the Sicilian capital of Palermo, for some tennis later on in the day. The Italian event is one of the few on the tour that begins play in the later afternoon local time – a refreshing change from the normal 11:00 AM local starts!

We’ll be focusing on the match between Nuria Parrizas Diaz and Asia Muhammad for this piece.

This contest is one of the more lopsided of the week in terms of talent and ability on clay, with Asia Muhammad being more of a doubles player and when she is playing singles, much more proficient on quicker surfaces.

Just 4-3 on the season on the dirt, her only remotely notable victory came against Rebeka Masarova, and her losses to the likes of Erika Andreeva and Joanne Zuger came by at least four games each.

What’s more, even her hard-court success has come primarily on the ITF Tour in Australia, where the draws are noticeably less talented than their equivalents in European countries due to obvious cost restrictions for most players.

With Parrizas Diaz being a big step up from the type of player Muhammad has played against on the clay, everything points to this one being a relatively straightforward match.

The world No. 54 has a decent serve, as well as the ability to generate pace, hit with good topspin and bury the ball deep in the court, as well as find the outer thirds to pull her opponents out of position.

The latter is the key to the matchup analysis here, with Muhammad not being the best mover out there. Considering she’s also a power-oriented hard courter, the comfort and experience edges on clay also work in the 31-year-old from Granada’s favour.

Finally, looking at things from a more stats-based perspective, Muhammad has a glaring “not available” in the hold plus break percentage category at tour-level on clay in the last 52 weeks. Her career at the highest levels of the sport? A paltry 72.4% mark (considering 90% is poor, that illustrates how poor the American is on the red clay).

With a 230-point advantage in clay-court specific elo rating, I think the market has somehow undervalued Parrizas Diaz’s edge here.

I have this handicap much closer to -5.5 games than the -4.5 on offer – at a relatively cheap price, no less – so am more than happy to back the Spaniard in this one.