Novak Djokovic vs Ben Shelton U.S. Open Preview and Expert Tip: Does Shelton Have ANy Hope Against the Greatest of All Time?

Novak Djokovic vs Ben Shelton (U.S. Open) Friday, September 8th

Semifinal Friday is here, and we’ve got you covered for both matches on Friday, as some of the best men on the ATP Tour compete for a spot in the U.S. Open final!

In this preview, we focus on Novak Djokovic vs Ben Shelton, as it’s the legend of the sport taking on one of the up-and-coming young guns on home soil.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Novak Djokovic vs Ben Shelton Expert Tip
• Novak Djokovic Recent Form
• Ben Shelton Recent Form
• Novak Djokovic vs Ben Shelton H2H Stat of the Match
• Gamble Responsibly

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Novak Djokovic vs Ben Shelton Expert Tip

This is one of the more lopsided matchups from a qualitative perspective that we’ve seen in some time in a grand slam semifinal.

A raw, talented young serve that leaks double faults and errors against the greatest to ever play the sport, who is particularly dominant on the return of serve and is rock solid from the baseline.

Forget the intangible and narrative aspects like experience on the big stage that point to Djokovic, the soon-to-be world No. 1 is perfectly positioned to slow Shelton’s roll on the court tactically as well.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Djokovic -7.5 Games at 1.88 with Pinnacle, using 2/10 stakes.

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Novak Djokovic Recent Form

Djokovic’s form is almost comically dominant. He’s played four tournaments since the end of May. Three grand slams and one Masters event. His record at those tournaments? 23-1 entering Friday’s tilt.

Outside of the first two sets against his compatriot Laslo Djere, Djokovic has been in total control of his matches the last week or so in Queens.

His elite return game may be put to the test here against Shelton – especially if the youngster tries to serve-and-volley early and force him to try and hit passing shots against 225 km/h first serves. Once he does get the timing down, I fail to see what exactly Shelton does to pose problems for the heavy favourite in this matchup.

I’m fine with the rather heavy handicap, despite Shelton’s serve, simply because Djokovic is the one player I trust most to be able to return against it and break him adeptly. Plus we know that Shelton can be overly aggressive from the service line and should he gift a point or two to Djokovic in his service games, he’ll be playing with fire.

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Ben Shelton Recent Form

After making a shock run to the quarterfinals to the quarterfinals in the opening major of the season down under, Shelton has one-upped himself by reaching the semifinals at his home slam in New York.

What’s more surprising is that he really didn’t have any form at all entering the event.

He actually hadn’t won back-to-back events at any ATP Tour level tournament prior to the U.S. Open since…that run at the Australian Open.

What a wacky route he’s taken.

It does make a bit of sense though when one thinks about it. He has an explosive game capable of going off at any time, so just from a pure happenstance standpoint, it was always possible. He’s also in good shape and still very young, so he’s well-equipped to deal with the hot conditions and best-of-five set format in the heat of Melbourne in January and New York in August. Finally, he’s had relatively favourable draws in both of the main draws.

His most surprising wins in those two runs have come against his countrymen in Tommy Paul (in both slam runs) and Frances Tiafoe – two players who have had trouble getting over the hump in the round of 16 to semifinal stages of the biggest events.

He has one of the biggest serves we’ve seen in quite some time for a lefty, big power on the forehand wing and strong court coverage skills. He’ll also surely feed off the energy from the raucous American crowd.

The problem for Shelton? He still plays tennis that is far too reactive rather than proactive, plays with far too much risk and doesn’t think through points particularly well.

Proactive tennis, point construction and tactical acumen are three things that Djokovic is unmatched at by anyone currently on tour. That’s simply too large of an obstacle to overcome for Shelton in my view.

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Novak Djokovic vs Ben Shelton Head to Head – Stat of the Match

With the young American being so new to tour and having struggled so much in most events he’s played, it’s no shock that these two have yet to play.

Stats-wise, it’s all about the break percentages here. Not only is Djokovic one of the all-time greats when it comes to breaking his opponents, but even at 36 years old, he’s still breaking serve on hard courts at a 30% rate.

That’s over 2.5 times as much as Shelton on hard courts in 2023, and it’s not like his serve is all that vulnerable to potentially assist Shelton’s weaker return game. Djokovic has held over 90% of the time this season on hard courts.

If this isn’t one-way traffic by the end of the match, I’d be fairly surprised.

Odds as at 11:30 pm UK Time on September 7th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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