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tennis | Sunday, September 10, 2023 8:44 AM (Revised at: Sunday, September 10, 2023 8:45 AM)

Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev U.S. Open Bet Builder Tips: 4.20 Builder for Men’s U.S. Open Final

Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev U.S. Open Bet Builder Tips: 4.20 Builder for Men’s U.S. Open Final
Jon Reid
Jon Reid
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Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev (U.S. Open): Friday, September 10th

The day has arrived. Two of the top players in the ATP rankings go toe-to-toe for the U.S. Open trophy! It’s Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev, as we get a rematch from the 2021 final that saw the Russian deprive Djokovic of the calendar grand slam.

It may not be the marquee matchup everyone was hoping for, with Medvedev having upset Carlos Alcaraz, but it’s still a match with plenty to chew on. Let’s jump into the preview!

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

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Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Bet Builder Tips

  • Novak Djokovic will win the match
  • Set 1 – Score After 4 Games will be Tied 2-2
  • Over 8.5 Games in Set 1
  • Match Will Not Go to 5 Sets
  • Under 1.5 Tiebreaks in the Match

Bet Builder Odds:  4.20  

It’s another Bet Builder that has a few markets that would correlate to a Djokovic victory. After that crushing defeat in 2021, where he didn’t look like himself in terms of body language or play on court, you know avenging that loss on Arthur Ashe is top of mind for the soon-to-be world No. 1.

Medvedev’s level was incredible against Alcaraz, but the chances he can replicate that for another lengthy match aren’t great in my mind, and he’ll need that level to one-up someone of Djokovic’s calibre.

Even if he can find a similar level, it’s hard to see him winning over 80% of his first serve points against the Serbian. He’s the greatest returner we’ve seen on hard courts and his ability to get points started against first serves is even better than Alcaraz’s.

I’ll take a small stake on a higher odds Bet Builder than the women’s final, with Djokovic to win in three or four sets being the primary way I want to attack the match.

Read on for more expert insights.


Novak Djokovic Recent Form

It was a convincing win over the young Ben Shelton in the semifinals for Djokovic, who did blow his break lead in the third set twice, before closing it out in a tiebreak, but he was in total control against the explosive, but erratic, young American.

The primary blemish from that match was his winning percentage behind his second serves, but there’s a good chance that was more a function of the opposition, rather than a vulnerability any opponent can look to exploit.

Shelton is an aggressive, power-oriented player who will go huge on those returns and can seize control of points more easily than a player like Medvedev, who doesn’t really have the tendency to ramp up the pace on his groundstrokes – particularly on return, where he camps out well behind the baseline.

If Djokovic can maintain the level he’s put forth pretty much all season, he’s certainly more likely than not to win this match.


Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

There is no denying how well Medvedev played in his semifinal against Alcaraz. As I alluded to above, however, that kind of performance is going to be really tough to replicate. Don’t believe me? Take it from Medvedev himself. After that shocking victory, the world No. 3 stated in his on-court interview that he needed to play at an 11/10 level if he wanted to win and he felt like he played at a 12/10 level.

Now that’s obviously hyperbolic to an extent, but even he knows he had to play as well as his game would allow to have a chance to do what he did.

Now against a better returner and point starter, can he produce that quasi-perfect level again? I highly doubt it. For the sake of entertainment value, I hope he does. For the sake of the bet, I’m fine if he can’t.


Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev – H2h Stat of the Match

Djokovic and Medvedev are familiar foes, having met 14 times over the years. Djokovic has the 9-5 lead, as one would expect against anyone that’s had to play him 14 times, but credit Medvedev for keeping things close with one of the greatest players in the history of the sport.

It could be the lack of raw power that Djokovic possesses that allows Medvedev to play his ultra-consistent defensive style with effectiveness that keeps things close, but with Djokovic having stepped up his game on serve since bringing Goran Ivanisevic onto his team, I think the cheap points may come a bit more often for him than in years past.

Since that Medvedev win here two years ago, Djokovic has won four of the five meetings, though some have been very close. Medvedev did clip him in Dubai back in February, but it’s worth noting that – for whatever reason – Djokovic in the last few years hasn’t been at his best in Dubai.

I’ll trust the best to ever do it as he has a chance to continue re-writing the history books on Sunday afternoon in the biggest arena the sport has to offer.


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