Naomi Osaka vs Lesia Tsurenko Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, February 14th

There’s another match on Wednesday from the WTA 1000 Qatar TotalEnergies Open that piques my interest.

Let’s get into Naomi Osaka vs Lesia Tsurenko in a match of contrasting styles that should see one player impose her will on the other.

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Our Osaka vs Tsurenko prediction is Osaka -3.5 games.

In this article:

• Naomi Osaka vs Lesia Tsurenko Prediction
• Naomi Osaka Recent Form
• Lesia Tsurenko Recent Form
• Naomi Osaka vs Lesia Tsurenko H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

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Naomi Osaka vs Lesia Tsurenko (Qatar TotalEnergies Open) Prediction: Improving Osaka to Find Third Straight Win

• Prediction: Osaka -3.5 games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on February 14th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Go with our tip at UnibetCan’t pass up the chance to get Osaka here at under 4.5 games on the handicap. She may still be working towards the level that once made her the most dominant hardcourt player in the women’s game, but she’s shown signs this week that her return game is finally starting to round into form.

It’s not like she’s played poor servers either in Caroline Garcia and Petra Martic, but even if she had, Tsurenko is one of the worst servers on tour in her own right, meaning we could reasonably expect Osaka to fare well once more on return.

With her power edge, I think we’re finding a spot here where we can be ahead of the market on trusting Osaka to be closer to her form of old.

Read on for more expert insights.

Naomi Osaka Recent Form

After a lengthy absence from the professional tour, Osaka returned down under to start the year in Brisbane, where she won her first match back against Tamara Korpatsch, before losing her next three to Karolina Pliskova, Garcia and Danielle Collins.

That’s the downside to returning at some of the bigger tournaments – the matches can be super tough right off the bat.

Luckily, she’s not tasked with someone who can serve or hit as big as she can this time around, and we’ve seen her string together a few match wins this week for the first time.

With one of the most powerful games in women’s tennis, there’s no doubt that Osaka has the talent to climb back up the rankings and be among the better players on tour. With a few wins already this week and a favourable matchup against a light server and light hitter from the baseline, this week in Doha may prove to be the first step in doing just that.

Lesia Tsurenko Recent Form

After scheduling really well in 2023 and racking up match wins (often in lighter fields with weaker opposition), Tsurenko has found it a bit tougher this season.

She won a few matches in Melbourne and was fortunate enough to draw a wild card in the opening round this week, and then play an obviously less-than-100% Ons Jabeur to reach this point.

Her last two matches prior to this week though? She won one game combined in the four sets played, as she was hit off the court by Aryna Sabalenka and Ludmilla Samsonova. Interestingly enough, Osaka’s game profiles in that same power-centric category.

Tsurenko will have to find a way to counteract that power a little more effectively this time out, as well as protect her serve from being picked on.

Naomi Osaka vs Lesia Tsurenko H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played three times in the past (all on hard courts), with Osaka leading the series 2-1. Now, it’s worth noting none of those meetings have happened since 2019, so take that stat with a grain of salt.

For me, the stat to watch? The hold percentage of each. With Osaka a serve-first player and Tsurenko being better on return, it’ll be a battle to see who can impose their preferred game plan on the match.

That could be a tall task for the Ukrainian, with Osaka holding her service games at a rate of over 82% this year. Compare that to the 57% mark of Tsurenko, and it feels like the easy holds are only going to be coming for one player.

I’d expect Osaka to find far more opportunities on return, and as a result, she should be able to win by a margin more often than not in this matchup.

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SAFER GAMBLING

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