Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H,4/25/24

Thursday kicks off the second round of the WTA draw from the Mutua Madrid Open. Let’s take a look at the Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, which is the second match on Stadium 3. Jon Reid’s Ostapenko vs Bouzas Maneiro prediction is available below!

Bouzas Maneiro’s win probability is a surprising 38.9% while Ostapenko is favored to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is three games and the total game line is 21.5.

Jelena vs Bouzas Maneiro Prediction: In Form Spaniard Outgunned in Second Round Tilt

• Prediction: Ostapenko o4.5 breaks & Ostapenko -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.66 & 1.88
• Bookmaker: bet365 & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 3/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on April 25th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

bet with bet365I’m well aware that Bouzas Maneiro is on fire and playing what is by far her best-ever tennis at the moment, but let’s slow our horses on this type of valuation.

Ostapenko is still an elite player when she wants to be on the women’s circuit and the Spaniard has proven very little against really strong competition. Sure, she’s won 30 matches already this year, but her win against Paula Badosa on Wednesday was her first of the season above the ITF and WTA 125k level. Even that win came from 2-6 down against an opponent that took to social media days earlier saying she had an issue with her adductor and was going to try and play this week.

I can understand that the form means she deserves a bit of respect, especially since Ostapenko has looked a bit like she’s in one of her indifferent stretches on the court, but until Bouzas Maneiro starts playing more regularly against legitimate top-50 competition and racking up wins, there’s still a wide gulf between these two players in my books. My Ostapenko vs Bouzas Maneiro prediction is for Ostapenko to break Bouzas Maneiro’s serve over 4.5 times and for her to cover the game handicap.

Read on for more expert insights.

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Jelena Ostapenko Recent Form

After winning in Adelaide and Linz to start her 2024 season and be considered one of the form players of 2024, Ostapenko has cooled off a bit – as she’s prone to do – struggling in Indian Wells, Miami, and Stuttgart, with lopsided losses in the latter two tournaments.

Now, those losses came to Anna Kalinskaya and Linda Noskova, both top-35 players in the women’s game.

With one of the more powerful games from the baseline, Ostapenko isn’t one for point construction or slow and steady play. It’s all aggression, all the time.

Against someone who has torn up the ITF Tour, but still lacks pace to her game and is still an ITF Tour player until she proves otherwise, Ostapenko should feast on return, flipping control of points from her first or second ball in those points.

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Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Recent Form

It’s been a sensational start to the season for the 21-year-old who has burst into the top 100 in the world rankings as a result. Other than wins against a returning Irina Camelia Begu, Martina Trevisan and the injured Badosa, I don’t see another win on her resume of players that play week-in, week-out on the main tour.

I certainly don’t see a top-10 or top-15 type win, which is the caliber of player she comes against in Ostapenko on Thursday.

I don’t see many power-centric players on the list of those she’s beaten this season either. In the one match against someone who serves decently and goes for her shots from the baseline, she was dispatched with relative ease by Rebeka Masarova in La Bisbal, Spain.

There’s no questioning the world No. 93’s drive, determination or hustle. Credit where it’s due for having 30 professional match wins before the end of April.

What I do question, however, is the quality of competition she’s played and her ability to deal with real top-end power on the other side of the net.

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Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro H2H – Stat of the Match

No previous meetings between these two, with Ostapenko playing primarily at the 500 level on the main tour and above, while Bouzas Maneiro has struggled to get into draws above the 125k level.

I want to see how Bouzas Maneiro protects her serve against the overwhelming power and incredibly aggressive style of Ostapenko. She’s never shy when going after returns with Bouzas Maneiro playing an underpowered style and posting some unimpressive service numbers from her limited tour-level sample.

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