tennis | Wednesday, March 1, 2023 9:00 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Austin, Peyton Stearns vs Mirjam Bjorklund

Jon Reid

Peyton Stearns vs Mirjam Bjorklund Best Bet: Wednesday, March 1st

Not sure how to feel about that result from Monterrey. A horrendous start from Donna Vekic with double faults and the inability to land her powerful groundstrokes saw her down 2-6 early. Once she found that range, she raced out to a 5-0 15-15 lead in the second. Then Lesia Tsurenko retired and the bet was voided. Onwards we go!

We’ll open March with our women’s selections but going back to the event in Austin, Texas. Former collegiate standout Peyton Stearns is favoured in her matchup with Mirjam Bjorklund at the ATX Open, and that’s the match we’ll dig into.

In this article:

Peyton Stearns vs Mirjam Bjorklund Preview
Peyton Stearns vs Mirjam Bjorklund Best Bet

Peyton Stearns vs Mirjam Bjorklund Preview

March 1st, 23:00 (UK Time)

Was an exhilarating match in the first round for the former University of Texas No. 1 (Austin is where the university is located, which explains the wild card into the event for Stearns). She took out British No. 5 Katie Boulter in a trio of tiebreaks that took nearly 3.5 hours to complete.

Even with a day off, that’s a lengthy match for a relatively new professional to recover from. It’s also worth noting, the level Boulter had been playing at for the last few days wasn’t exactly the strongest (she narrowly outlasted Elina Avanesyan in qualifying and had to save match points in that one).

Having watched Stearns late last year indoors, I was rather impressed by her game, but certainly not overwhelmed by any one aspect.

To see her being priced shorter than 1.50 in the betting markets considering she’s relatively new to the tour and off a gruelling match, is a surprise to say the least.

As for Bjorklund, she too is coming off a win that looks more impressive on paper. In fact, we previewed that match (and it went swimmingly) for our Monday selection. While she beat Alycia Parks, that isn’t the most impressive accomplishment when you remove the American from indoor hard-court settings.

Nevertheless, the Swede has added a lot to her game, with the ability to hit through her forehand wing, defend when necessary – which was on full display against the big-hitting Parks – and has already played against a hostile American crowd (again, see her match last round).

She’s been a professional longer, was off court earlier in the day Monday and I’m not sure why she’s such an underdog here.

Peyton Stearns vs Mirjam Bjorklund Best Bet

Even looking at the elo ratings, the blended hard-court figure from Tennis Abstract shows us a differential of just 70 points. That is usually where bookmakers and the markets go for generating their prices, and can lead to inefficiencies. Yet even by elo rating, this one wouldn’t be so lopsided.

While I’m not making the case that Bjorklund should be favoured in this matchup, she certainly shouldn’t be an overwhelming underdog, either.