Saturday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Bastad, July 16th
ATP Bastad BEST BET: RUBLEV vs BAEZ
Saturday, July 16th, 13:30 UK Time
For Saturday’s semifinal selection from the ATP semifinals, we remain in the Swedish beach town of Bastad, as Andrey Rublev takes on Sebastian Baez.
In a high-octane match for a 250-level event (consider the fact that both players are among the top-12 in clay-court elo rating), the second semifinal of the day should provide some entertainment for fans in the stands and watching on TV or streams alike.
The Russian has done well to come through a pair of tricky clay-court-centric players in his first two matches, which should prepare him well for the test against the Argentine on Saturday.
Equipped with the biggest two weapons on the court in his serve and forehand, the question will become whether Rublev can display the rally tolerance and point construction to beat his rock-solid opposition.
Considering his improvement over the past few years, I’m inclined to believe he should be a bit larger of a favourite than he currently is in the betting markets. The players that have managed to best him on the dirt this season include Marin Cilic (in a thrilling five-set match), Stefanos Tsitsipas (one of the sport’s three or four best players on the surface) and Jannik Sinner (in three sets). The loss to Filip Krajinovic appears to be an outlier and I’m not sold on Sebastian Baez being among the aforementioned names in terms of calibre.
The rather diminutive 21-year-old has incredible defensive abilities and one of the more consistent games on tour on the red clay and he can still dial up some decent pace on his forehand (he also takes the ball early rather often to take even more time away from his opposition).
The concern here is that Rublev has the bigger weapons, much-improved rally tolerance and the awareness that when he’s on the defensive, he can hit his forehand with plenty of topspin – a tactic that could prove to be effective against a shorter opponent.
With the much stronger serve, I’d expect Rublev to be finding as many break opportunities, if not more than Baez and think he should be a bit shorter in the markets than the odds currently on offer.
- Selection: Rublev to win
- Odds: 1.80 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 2/10
Odds are valid as of 10:00 am on 16th July 2022. Odds may now differ.
