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tennis | Friday, May 27, 2022 10:59 AM (Revised at: Friday, May 27, 2022 10:51 PM)

Saturday's Tennis Best Bet: French Open, May 28th

Saturday's Tennis Best Bet: French Open, May 28th
Contributor: Independent Photo Agency / Alamy Stock Photo

WTA French Open Best Bet: Daria Kasatkina vs Shelby Rogers

Saturday, May 28th, 11:30 UK Time

Just a day away from the second week of the year’s second major, as the third round comes to a close on Saturday, with the women’s top half of the draw rounding out the final 16.

For Saturday’s best bet, the focus is on Daria Kasatkina and Shelby Rogers. Two players with polar opposite game styles will clash in this one.

The American is far more of a power player, lacking movement and touch, but making up for it with a big booming serve and forehand combination.

The smaller Russian, on the other hand, is more typical of the player one would see succeed on the red clay. Quick, counter-punching, consistent with variety and excellent court coverage. With red clay rewarding that style much more often, it’s easy to back Kasatkina in this one.

The markets, however, agree and have set this games handicap at four. So let’s dig a little deeper and delve into why even that rather large handicap isn’t quite enough given the matchup at hand.

First, there’s the aforementioned stylistic advantage for Kasatkina. The next key here is that while the power of Rogers worked against her compatriot and fellow power player Danielle Collins, this is precisely the matchup she does not look to be as competitive in. With the clay slowing the groundstrokes down and Kasatkina being exceptional at ball retrieval, the lone real strength of Rogers is neutralised. To make matters worse, Kasatkina also moves the ball around the court really well, meaning she can use the pace on Rogers’ groundstrokes to exploit Rogers’ movement.

Finally, it’s the improved form that really seals this position. Kasatkina in years past had struggled on the clay, despite her game seemingly suiting the surface well. That’s likely down to comfort and experience on the surface.

Coming from a country with primarily hard courts, it has taken her a while to adapt. Now having spent time in Spain (she’s a well-known super fan of FC Barcelona) and gaining experience on tour, it appears she’s made the jump to being a very good clay-court player.

Her clay-court hold plus break percentage over the last 52 weeks is a sparkling 109%, and her clay-court season features wins over Coco Gauff, Maria Sakkari, Jil Teichmann and Paula Badosa already. Not to mention, through her first two rounds of play, she’s dropped a total of five games through four sets.

In this instance, it looks to be another solid spot to back the favourite, despite a rather elevated games handicap.

  • Selection: Kasatkina -4 games
  • Best Odds: 1.93 (Pinnacle) 
  • Stakes: 5/10

Get more tips for Daria Kasatkina vs Shelby Rogers

Odds are valid as of 15:30 on 27th May 2022. Odds may now differ. 


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