tennis | Thursday, February 23, 2023 10:07 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Merida, Sloane Stephens vs Varvara Gracheva

Jon Reid

Sloane Stephens vs Varvara Gracheva Best Bet: Thursday, February 23rd

Lovely win from Karolina Muchova in straight sets, despite nearly blowing the second set from a dominant position. Glad to have a relatively larger stakes bet come in at those odds!

Onto Thursday, where we’ll look at a match from the Yucatan Peninsula in Merida, as Sloane Stephens takes on the lucky loser, Varvara Gracheva.

In this article:

Sloane Stephens vs Varvara Gracheva Preview
Sloane Stephens vs Varvara Gracheva Best Bet

Sloane Stephens vs Varvara Gracheva Preview

February 24th, 00:00 (UK Time)

It’s been a rough few years for Sloane Stephens, as she’s looked to claw her way back up the rankings.

Unfortunately for the American, she’s had trouble establishing any kind of consistency or momentum, and there may be a pretty good reason for that. Her draws last year on outdoor hard courts were as unlucky as one could imagine for a months-long stretch, while she hasn’t won on the quicker courts down under in years.

Now back on the slower Mexican hard courts, where her defending, ability to inject pace and her ability to create angles to open up space are incredibly effective, I’m bullish on her prospects this week.

Consider her losses outdoors last year. Emma Raducanu, Naomi Osaka, Iga Swiatek (twice), Jessica Pegula (twice), Maria Sakkari, Aryna Sabalenka and Ajla Tomljanovic. That’s a slew of one time top-10 players, grand slam champions and then Tomljanovic who arguably had a career season in 2022.

Meanwhile, at the first Guadalajara event on slower courts (though in altitude), against a weaker field? Stephens won the title. At the 1000-level event in the same city, she reached the quarters, despite a much stronger field.

As I alluded to, her game works really well in these conditions. She doesn’t mind the heat, moves well, gets almost everything back and is able to induce errors and when you leave her time to set up her shots, she can flip the script in rallies and pull you off court.

Her serve isn’t great, but it finds her enough holds to let her incredible returning do the work and find her wins.

With Gracheva not possessing a big power game, despite being of a relatively decent height for the WTA Tour, Stephens is primed to apply plenty of pressure in her service games.

Sloane Stephens vs Varvara Gracheva Best Bet

While Stephens has been a popular player to oppose in the betting markets in recent years, it’s pretty notable how strong she’s been against non-elite players and when not down in Australia, where the quicker courts can help neutralise her returning and athletic edges.

In this spot, against a lucky loser who barely got by an underpowered heavy-slice player in Tatjana Maria (who also seemed to slow down significantly in the heat as the match wore on), I love her chances to win this one by margin.

The only players that covered the 3.5-game handicap in her wins in Mexico last season were Caroline Garcia and Marie Bouzkova – both players in the top-30 in the rankings and both on their preferred surface.