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tennis | Saturday, July 2, 2022 3:55 PM (Revised at: Saturday, July 2, 2022 11:37 PM)

Sunday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Wimbledon, July 3rd

Sunday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Wimbledon, July 3rd
Contributor: Sipa US / Alamy Stock Photo

ATP Wimbledon BEST BET: NORRIE vs PAUL

Sunday, July 3rd, TBD

The second week begins from The Championships as the fourth round is set. While no rankings points are on offer, the prize money on the line in the second week can be eye-watering for most. More importantly, everyone involved is just four wins away from being crowned a champion at Wimbledon – the most prestigious tournament in the tennis world.

For Sunday’s selection, we take a look at a match between Cameron Norrie and Tommy Paul, as they vie for a spot in the final eight.

Bookmakers and the market have this one priced up with Norrie the substantial favourite. While I don’t disagree, I think this should be a much closer affair than current odds would suggest.

Firstly, these two are very familiar with each other. The Brit has helped his counterpart prepare for southpaw opposition as a warmup partner. That has kept these two busy, seeing as the American has played a lefty in each of the first three rounds.

Being acquainted with Norrie’s game, and having played three lefties on the trot to open the tournament affords Paul plenty of insight into this matchup to keep things close.

Secondly, in the previous three rounds, Paul has dropped more than three games in just two of the nine sets he’s played, absolutely cruising into the fourth round. With a 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 win against Adrian Mannarino – the most comparable opponent he’s played to Norrie – we’ve also got a peek at how well Paul plays against left-handed baseliners that defend extremely well.

His own consistency, as well as his comfort on grass, athleticism and being rock solid from both wings, has him in blistering serve. With his serve playing up on the quicker surface and against lefties (the 25-year-old has held serve at a rate of 95% through three matches).

Matchup-wise Paul should fare well, considering he isn’t error-prone – key against the likes of Norrie – and this is the rare match where he’s likely to be dictating more often than his opposition. His abilities on return should also allow him to pressure the lighter Norrie serve relatively often, so even if he were to find himself a breakdown, hope would not be lost for that set.

Finally, if you’re more inclined to rely on statistics and quantitative measures, Paul actually has a better hold plus break percentage over the course of the 2022 grass season (and at Wimbledon despite facing a tougher path to round four), and they are separated by fewer than 50 points in elo rating on grass, which implies that this match is very close to a 50-50 affair.

I think regardless of how you slice it, Paul is a tad too long in the betting markets in this one.

  • Selection: Paul to win
  • Odds: 2.62 (Bet365)
  • Stakes: 3/10

More tips for NORRIE vs PAUL

Odds are valid as of 6:00 pm on 2nd July 2022. Odds may now differ. 


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