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tennis | Friday, May 27, 2022 11:03 AM (Revised at: Sunday, May 29, 2022 10:56 AM)

Sunday's Tennis Best Bet: French Open, May 29th

Sunday's Tennis Best Bet: French Open, May 29th
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WTA French Open Best Bet: Mertens vs Gauff

Sunday May 29th, 12:30 (UK time)

Another match selection, another match involving Elise Mertens. Her matches, for whatever reason, have been presenting consistent value in the markets this week, and Sunday’s fourth round match is no different.

It’s been a long road to this point in 2022, but the Belgian finally looks to be back in some decent form. Elena Gabriela Ruse and Varvara Gracheva may not be the toughest of opponents, but Mertens’ thorough dispatching of both is encouraging. It appears as though the decision to play one of the lead-in tournaments to Roland Garros is paying dividends – especially considering she didn’t play too deep into Strasbourg, was competitive in her loss to the eventual finalist, and has received a walkover this week for extra days off.

Having Mertens at just shy of 3.00 odds to win this match seems a tad harsh, considering her talent and renewed form. Implying she beats Coco Gauff on clay just 33% of the time is an undervaluation for a few reasons.

Firstly, there’s the matchup, where Mertens may concede a little in the serve department, but makes up for it in baseline solidity. The forehand wing, especially, is one where Mertens should be able to find some free points off of Gauff’s racquet, while her defensive skills and solid backhand should be able to hold off the barrage from Gauff.

Statistically, Mertens trails by about nine percentage points in the hold plus break percentage department over the last 52 weeks of play on the red dirt. Again, some of that can be attributed to the struggles she had entering Roland Garros, which seem to be in her rearview mirror.

Ultimately, both the matchup and the statistical analysis have Gauff slightly ahead, but by no means an overwhelming favourite – as the betting markets do.

That gives enough confidence to enter this market and take a position on the games handicap for the Belgian.

  • Selection: Mertens +4 games
  • Odds: 1.82 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 2/10

Get more tips for Mertens vs Gauff

Odds are valid as of 1pm on 28th May 2022. Odds may now differ. 

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