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Tennis | Friday, February 23, 2024 9:12 AM (Revised at: Friday, February 23, 2024 10:29 AM)

Iga Swiatek vs Anna Kalinskaya Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, February 23rd

Iga Swiatek vs Anna Kalinskaya Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, February 23rd
IMAGO / Hasenkopf - Iga Swiatek vs Anna Kalinskaya.

It’s a semifinal Friday in the Middle East, as the WTA 1000 Dubai Duty-Free Tennis Championships and the world No. 1 has the opportunity to pick up one of the few big trophies she hasn’t yet won with a pair of wins in the next few days.

Let’s look at Iga Swiatek vs Anna Kalinskaya, as the Pole looks to move one step closer to the trophy in the United Arab Emirates. Swiatek is expected to easily win this one at 90% probability and 1.11 betting odds, while Kalinskaya is at 6.50 odds.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Our Swiatek vs Kalinskaya prediction is for Swiatek to cover the -6 game handicap and keep the match under 19 total games.

In this article:

Iga Swiatek vs Anna Kalinskaya Prediction: World No. 1 to Roll Past Surging Russian

  • Prediction: Swiatek -6 Games & Under 19 Games
  • Best Odds: 1.99 & 1.94
  • Bookmaker: Pinnacle
  • Stakes: 4/10 & 4/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on February 23rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Go with our tip at bet365
Important note off the top, this is not a combination bet. I am betting on both the handicap as a single bet, as well as the under as a single bet. I know some bookmakers will offer a combination of handicap and total in a single bet, so I just wanted to clarify what we are betting first and foremost.

Now, why are we betting on these two? Fairly simple. For starters, we typically see a fairly consistent style trouble Swiatek. The big-hitting players can put her on the back foot, hit through her and rush her into mistakes. Those that can punish the defensive, topspin groundstrokes.

Kalinskaya doesn’t fit that description. She also doesn’t have the most powerful serve to find cheap points. That is almost a prerequisite to keep one of the elite returners in the women’s game from breaking you more than half the time.

Finally, Kalinskaya has played through qualifiers and this will be her seventh match in eight days in Dubai, with that appearing to take its toll last round when she almost looked as though she may not complete the match after the opening set. She needed a medical timeout and didn’t look great. Now, she came back to beat Coco Gauff, but the American’s level hasn’t been near its best the last few weeks and Swiatek (and her forehand) are a totally different test.

Read on for more expert insights.

Iga Swiatek Recent Form

I don’t think I need to lay out Swiatek’s accomplishments. She’s the number one player in the world for good reason. She’s fresh off a third consecutive title in Doha and last year she reached the final at this tournament – her best result in Dubai to date.

She’s lost just once this year (to Linda Noskova at the year’s first grand slam) and has only dropped two other sets.

She’s also won 16 sets this season by a score of 6-2 or better. No matter how you slice it, the heavy topspin style she employs has once more caused most of the tour fits.

Considering she is head and shoulders better than the rest of the field and none of the other three women can execute the style that typically bothers her, I would think Swiatek and her team will be disappointed with anything but the trophy this week.

Anna Kalinskaya Recent Form

It’s been a revelation of a season for Kalinskaya. I’ve been high on her chances for this breakthrough for quite some time and talked her up during the Australian Open swing. She’ll reach a new career high on Monday, and it’s well deserved.

So far this season, she’s reached the quarterfinals in Melbourne (her first time making it past the second round at the grand slam level) and now made the semifinals in Dubai (her best result at a WTA 1000 event).

She plays well from both wings, can counterpunch, generate her own pace, flatten her shots out and is a decent mover.

The one thing she doesn’t possess is raw power, and that’s the Achilles heel of most of Swiatek’s opponents.

Perhaps her back issue won’t bother her tomorrow, but I still have trouble seeing how she gets to a set win and avoids a lopsided set going against her when playing the most dominant player in the women’s game.

Iga Swiatek vs Anna Kalinskaya H2H – Stat of the Match

No career head-to-head meetings for these two, but even if there had been, I’d be hesitant to factor it too much into my fair price and handicap.

Kalinskaya has reached a new level this year and until the late first set today, it seemed like she was finally going through a period of consistent health on the court.

Statistically, she’ll need to serve far more effectively than she has the last year on hard courts. A hold rate of about 73% and first-serve win rate of 65% won’t cut it when stepping up against one of the better returners the tour has seen in a long while.


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