Iga Swiatek vs Caroline Wozniacki Prediction, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/14/24

We’re into the quarterfinals at the BNP Paribas Open, as the tennis heats up from the desert! For our first WTA preview on Thursday, we have our Iga Swiatek vs Caroline Wozniacki prediction, as the top player in the women’s game looks to continue her tear through the singles draw. Wozniacki’s win probability is a paltry 12.5% while Swiatek is favored to win at 1.08 odds. The handicap is 6.5 games and the total games line is 18.5.

Also, check out our ATP prediction of the day of Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev from our tennis betting expert Jon Reid!

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Iga Swiatek vs Caroline Wozniacki Prediction: Swiatek to Continue Dominant Run

• Prediction: Under 18.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on March 14th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

The best thing one can learn to do when handicapping tennis is to start using player profiles rather than players themselves to formulate handicaps. Sure, pedigree and form will always matter to a degree, but edges can often be found simply by finding inconsistencies in the way the market prices players against others who play very similar styles of tennis.

Such is the case here, with the world No. 1 taking on the veteran Wozniacki. One thing Swiatek has proven time and again is that she can demolish opposition that can’t rush her from the baseline or who can’t find cheap points on serve. Wozniacki – much like Yulia Putintseva the round prior – doesn’t possess those abilities.

Yet we see a total here of 18.5 games. I was going to play the under-last round before the price moved. That total was 17.5 games. Imagine my surprise seeing this match against a similarly underpowered player coming in at 18.5. My Swiatek vs Wozniacki prediction is for there to be fewer than 19 games in the match.

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Iga Swiatek Recent Form

Slow, high-bouncing courts. The picture-perfect recipe for Swiatek dominance. She hasn’t let us down to this point in Tennis Paradise.

Of her three matches, Swiatek hasn’t seen an opponent push her past the 16-game mark, and that includes two players who gave her fits as recently as January of this year. Danielle Collins had her on the brink of defeat in Melbourne before Linda Noskova managed to finish the job in the next round. She beat Collins and Noskova here by nine and eight games, respectively.

It’s the ability to wear opponents down with the heavy forehand that takes energy to muscle back, along with the pace and the ability to defend against powerful groundstrokes, that are also blunted by the conditions.

She followed that up by losing just three games in a rout of Putintseva and now plays another player who struggles to find easy holds and can’t generate a whole lot in the power department either in Wozniacki. If the former No. 1 had been playing incredible tennis, I’d understand this price point in the market a bit more, but outside of Indian Wells, she’s looked rather pedestrian.

With the blazing form, perfect conditions, and ideal matchup in her favor, I’m not sure why I wouldn’t back Swiatek to cruise through another match on Thursday.

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Caroline Wozniacki Recent Form

To say this run to the quarterfinals has come out of nowhere would be a bit of an understatement after the way the 34-year-old’s season has begun. Wozniacki had won just a single match before this WTA 1000 tournament, and that was via retirement against Magda Linette at the Australian Open.

Her other matches featured losses to Elina Svitolina, as well as a pair of squandered leads from a set and break up to the likes of Maria Timofeeva and Anna Blinkova. Needless to say, she hasn’t come up against anyone near the level of Swiatek at this point.

Her rigid solidity from the baseline is enough to outlast more underpowered players or draw unforced errors from bigger hitters (particularly on slower courts like those on offer in California), but against someone that can dictate play, but also play with more margin for error and avoid making mistakes like Swiatek, she could find herself in a world of hurt.

Then there’s the fact that not only has she served at an unsustainably high rate given her underpowered game, but she’s yet to play an elite returner like Swiatek (who has broken serve 49% of the time or more in each season since 2022, including the start to 2024).

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Iga Swiatek vs Caroline Wozniacki H2H – Stat of the Match

These two did play in Toronto and went three sets, but that match took place back in 2019. For reference, at the time, Swiatek had just turned 18 years old a few months before that. Even still, she managed to win the contest after a slow start.

Fast forward nearly five years and Swiatek is the dominant force in women’s tennis, while Wozniacki hasn’t played a whole lot since returning to the game in her 30s after years away from the sport.

With an elo rating nearly 500 points greater, I’m still trying to understand why this total isn’t at least a full game lower at a 1.80 price.

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