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Mixed martial arts Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Stuttgart, Tatjana Maria vs Ylena In-Albon
Tatjana Maria vs Ylena In-Albon Best Bet: Tuesday, April 18th
This is getting comical. A set and break lead. Against a player that was on court for over three hours the day prior. Tamara Korpatsch managed to lose. Cannot believe how often these blown leads happen, with so few going the other way.
Onto Tuesday, where we’ll delve into the matchup between Tatjana Maria and Ylena In-Albon in Stuttgart.
In this article:
Tatjana Maria vs Ylena In-Albon Preview
April 18th, 16:00 (UK Time)
Well, after the loss a few weeks back to Eugenie Bouchard in altitude, on a surface she should’ve had an edge on in the Canadian’s first match back in months, I was pretty sure I wouldn’t be betting In-Albon again anytime soon.
Yet here we are.
It’s tough to pass up an opportunity to oppose the German on clay – even if it is indoors and typically plays quicker than the average clay court.
The big-serving German has been pretty solid in certain situations on the dirt since the start of last year, but almost all of those events have been played at altitude.
She seems to adapt to those elevated conditions much more efficiently than most, and it has paid dividends for her.
She won’t have that in Stuttgart, and her record on clay courts in other events is suboptimal at best.
While she does have a big first serve that should play well on these courts, her baseline game consists of a heavy dose of slices. There’s very little in the way of attacking tennis and that isn’t the best of news for the 35-year-old.
If In-Albon can maintain a consistent game from the baseline and work the ball around the court, making the German move and expend energy, she should be in good shape to pull off the upset.
Despite her struggles this season, this is still her favourite surface.
She’s also played a few matches on the surface, having come through qualifying, beating Mona Barthel and then one of the best young players in the game in Linda Fruhvirtova.
Maria, meanwhile, played a tough three setter with Laura Pigossi here in the Billie Jean King Cup on the weekend, but withdrew (or was pulled) from a big rubber against Beatriz Haddad Maia with the tie all level at 1-1. Whether a potential physical issue or a lack of confidence from the captain, that isn’t the greatest sign.
Tatjana Maria vs Ylena In-Albon Best Bet
In terms of evaluating value, I think it’s pretty clear that there’s a major overvaluation on Maria thanks to her results in Bogota and San Luis Potosi – both played at extreme altitude.
She’s proven to be somewhat of a specialist in those conditions.
Consider the fact that against Fruhvirtova – a younger, more talented player, who prefers clay and is on the ascent in her career – the markets closed with In-Albon as a 3.51 odds underdog.
Yet against an ageing serve-oriented player with little to offer from the baseline, she’s a 3.76 underdog?
Sure, each match is different and the markets should reflect that, but my overall point here is that for Maria to be seen as a larger favourite than Fruhvirtova here tells me the market is well off in assessing her talent.
Finally, for the bets themselves, I’d recommend going with Bet365 at 3.75 odds for the bonus wager, because their retirement rules will void any In-Albon retirement, while paying out the profit in bet credits should Maria retire after the first set is complete. At Pinnacle (where the price is 3.76), they’d grade whoever advances as the winner once the opening set completes and you run the risk of In-Albon retiring and losing your entire stake.
- Selection: In-Albon +1.5 sets (to win a set)
- Best Odds: 1.97 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 3/10
- Bonus: In-Albon to win at 3.75 odds with Bet365, using 2/10 stakes.
Odds as at 12:30 am on April 17h, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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