Tennis Picks Today for January 11th: Free Picks, Stats and Analysis for Today’s Tennis ActionTennis Picks Today: January 11th

Tennis Picks Today for January 11th

1. Olivo vs Bueno: Olivo to win
2. Krutykh vs Alves: Alves to win

As we near the end of the week and closer to the Australian Open, we don’t have many matches to choose from down under thanks to time zone complications.

We do, however, have some value on the betting board, courtesy of the Challenger AAT de TCA 1 in Buenos Aires. Let’s look at both Renzo Olivo vs Gonzalo Bueno and Oleksii Krutykh vs Mateus Alves.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Renzo Olivo vs Gonzalo Bueno Expert Tip
• Renzo Olivo Recent Form
• Gonzalo Bueno Recent Form
• Renzo Olivo vs Gonzalo Bueno H2H Stat of the Match
• Oleksii Krutykh vs Mateus Alves Expert Tip
• Oleksii Krutykh Recent Form
• Mateus Alves Recent Form
• Oleksii Krutykh vs Mateus Alves H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

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Renzo Olivo vs Gonzalo Bueno (Challenger AAT de TCA 1) Free Pick: Veteran to Take Advantage of Bueno’s Time On Court

• Pick: Olivo to win
• Best Odds: 1.66
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on January 11th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

This should be one of the more fun matchups available for tennis fans while the tennis down under is off-court.

The wily veteran in Olivo, taking on the Peruvian up-and-comer in Bueno, I think we’re seeing value in the Argentinian, considering I have his fair price much closer to 1.53 than the 1.66 on offer.

Not only is he more established, but he’s got a more well rounded game for me, as he may not possess raw power, but can still move opponents around with his forehand and is certainly the much better defender.

The other key point here is that Bueno has had far too many dips within matches this week, and he’s also been on court a bit too long for my liking, having played a trio of three-set matches since he had to play the qualifying draw.

Read on for more expert insights.

Renzo Olivo Recent Form

Considering the level I know Olivo can produce and how physical he can make matches – especially on the slower red clay – I actually believe that numbers wise, one could go up to 4/10 or 5/10. I tend to place bets backing the mercurial veteran on the more cautious end of the scale though.

See, Olivo has talent and a rigid solidity from the baseline, but within matches he can often wander off mentally, even when in complete control.

Nevertheless, as much as I like Bueno, I simply don’t think he’s at the same level just yet as the 31-year-old and the conditions, matchup and form entering the match all favour the more senior player.

Olivo has played just one match versus the three of his counterparts and he dispatched his countryman with relative ease in the opening round, winning by a margin of seven games.

He may never be a top-100 or even top-150 player again, but given the level and field at this Challenger 50, he’s certainly deserving of a bit more respect in the markets.

Gonzalo Bueno Recent Form

It’s been a mixed bag to start the season for the 19-year-old from Peru who, along with countryman Ignacio Buse, is looking to put the South American nation on the map in the tennis world.

He has won all three of his matches so far, but losing the first set in each of his qualifying matches to inferior opposition wasn’t great (especially considering his first opponent had very little to offer) and being unable to serve out the match from 5-3 up in the second set against Alex Barrena was also a bit of a red flag.

All in all, this week has been a sort of microcosm for his early career. The talent is evident and his forehand is certainly going to take him places, but the peaks and valleys need to be steadied out a bit before he’s ready to make a real charge up the rankings.

I’ll continue to outline the time spent on the court this week throughout this preview because he did look slightly fatigued in that second-round encounter with Barrena before catching a second wind in the deciding set. It’s also worth noting that Olivo tends to make his matches physical, which could see the 6.5 hours Bueno has played already become a pertinent factor in Thursday’s match.

Renzo Olivo vs Gonzalo Bueno H2H – Stat of the Match

Olivo has won both previous matches between these two, but it is worth noting that Bueno has managed to take a set in each of those losses.

Once in the Dominican Republic in 2022 and once last year on home soil at the Lima Challenger.

As the steadier player, it doesn’t shock me that Olivo came through both times as the victor. I also trust his physicality, consistency and stamina more on the court.

Throw in Bueno already having played nine sets to this point in the Argentinian capital, and it’s tough not to like Olivo even more in this matchup.

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Oleksii Krutykh vs Mateur Alves (Challenger de AAT de TCA 1) Free Pick: Brazilian Underdog Undervalued Against Beatable Favourite

• Pick: Alves to win
• Best Odds: 2.85
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on January 11th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

This price has all the makings of an undervaluation on the underdog.

Is Alves’ ranking (and career-high ranking) underwhelming? Sure. His game, however, is one to watch, as he can move around the court decently, hit through the forehand and play with spin. His rally tolerance is the area that requires improvements, but it’s looked fine so far this week.

Krutykh is the more established Challenger Tour player, so I can see why the market may like him on the surface, but his game is rather plain and we’ve seen him play down to his competition time and time again (including his match earlier this week).

Not only can he play down to Alves, but Alves’ game is actually pretty impressive when it’s clicking and can certainly catch the Ukrainian off guard.

Read on for more expert insights.

Oleksii Krutykh Recent Form

Krutykh had an incredibly mediocre 2023 season, with a record of about as many wins as losses on clay (15-16) and on hard courts (15-14). He did drop in the rankings, however, as a season ago, he managed to qualify for the Australian Open, whereas this year he’s playing this Challenger 50 in Argentina while qualifying is taking place.

Losses to the likes of Javier Barranco Cosano, Kilian Feldbausch (though the young Swiss is talented, despite his age) and Adrian Andreev last year on clay illustrate my earlier point about him playing down to competition perfectly.

His game doesn’t possess much power, nor the ability to dictate a whole lot from the baseline (though his first serve is fine), so he really can’t miss very much and even when he doesn’t, he’s still too often reliant on opposition mistakes.

I don’t mind backing him as a cheaper favourite or even as an underdog, as he does tend to extend matches, play longer points, which often leads to a more level playing field, but as a large favourite, I don’t mind opposing him, as he simply doesn’t possess a dominant game nearly often enough to justify the odds.

Mateus Alves Recent Form

I’m excited for what 2024 has in store for Alves.

Now 22 years old, he’s managed to rack up four ITF titles in his career, though they’ve come in four different seasons and he’s struggled to string together results.

I do think he’s got a nice mix of talent though, and after a poor summer and early autumn stretch, the Brazilian did manage to turn a corner in his final three events. Losses to the likes of Santiago Rodriguez Taverna in three sets (a Challenger Tour regular) and Daniel Galan in a third-set tiebreak (a borderline tour-level clay courter) are nothing to hang one’s head over.

He also beat Tristan Boyer and Edoardo Ribeiro in what ended up being an unusually tough qualifying draw for a late-season South American Challenger to make the main draw in Lima.

So far this week, his stronger play has carried over. He came through qualifying in impressive fashion and dominated one of the Aboian brothers in his first-round tilt.

I certainly think that he should be an underdog in this matchup, but with the odds nearing 3.00, this is a bit much.

Oleksii Krutykh vs Mateus Alves H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings to go over between these guys.

I’m anxious to see how well Alves deals with the kind of baseline solidity that Krutykh brings to the table.

He’s not going to overwhelm you with power, but I do think the relatively young Brazilian goes for his shots and plays a pretty strong game, despite his struggles to elevate his ranking into the top 400.

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SAFER GAMBLING

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