Tennis Picks Today for January 16th: Free Australian Open Picks for de Minaur vs Arnaldi and Tsurenko vs Masarova

Tennis Picks Today: January 16th

1. De Minaur vs Arnaldi: De Minaur -6 games
2. Tsurenko vs Masarova: Masarova to win

We’re into the second round of the Australian Open from Melbourne Park, and we still have plenty of action left in the year’s first grand slam.

For our previews on Day 4 of the tournament, let’s look at Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi and Lesia Tsurenko vs Rebeka Masarova.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi Expert Tip
• Alex de Minaur Recent Form
• Matteo Arnaldi Recent Form
• Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi H2H Stat of the Match
• Lesia Tsurenko vs Rebeka Masarova Expert Tip
• Lesia Tsurenko Recent Form
• Rebeka Masarova Recent Form
• Lesia Tsurenko vs Rebeka Masarova H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

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Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi (Australian Open) Free Pick: Red Hot Aussie to Keep Win Streak Alive

• Pick: de Minaur -6 games
• Best Odds: 1.87
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 4:30 am UK Time on January 16th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

It’s been a terrific 12 months for the young Italian, as he’s risen into the world’s top 50 and is provisionally inside the top 40 after his first-round victory.

With that said, this matchup might be a bit too much for Arnaldi. He has some explosiveness to his game, but he’s taking on a world-class defender. He does well to track balls down on his own, but he’ll also be the second best in speed and movement as well.

Then there’s the fact that de Minaur is in imperious form at the moment, winning his last slew of matches, including against some great players and only losing to a top-25 player in Cam Norrie and that was in a third-set tiebreak at the United Cup.

His surge up the rankings may continue throughout the 2024 season, but I’m siding with him being overwhelmed in this particular contest.

Read on for more Expert Insights.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

As mentioned above, de Minaur has been absolutely sensational in kicking off his 2024 campaign.

So much so, in fact, that many believe he has a great chance to come out of the second quarter and set up what could be a rematch with Novak Djokovic (who he beat at the United Cup).

I may not count myself as one of those people, but I do believe his win streak will continue on the fourth day of the Happy Slam.

His game plays so well on quicker courts, where he doesn’t look nearly as underpowered and his elite defending still allows him to apply pressure on return.

His relentless style also means we don’t see him take off many points or games, which is important considering we need him to win by margin. The potential for a lopsided set is certainly there.

Matteo Arnaldi Recent Form

Arnaldi has had a decent start to the year in his own right, racking up four wins to just two losses.

A few things to note though. First, his best win of the bunch came against Marton Fucsovics, so the quality of the player he’s beaten isn’t exactly near the level of someone like de Minaur – now – a top-10 player. Second, he’s had to grind out some close wins that very well could have been losses considering how close they were.

Arnaldi does possess a nice first serve and can hit through his forehand. His backhand can be a weapon when he flattens it out and generates width with the crosscourt shot as well.

His power isn’t so big, however, that he’ll be hitting through the man known as “Demon” in the tennis community.

Alex de Minuar vs Matteo Arnaldi H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two.

The matchup within the match to watch? How often Arnaldi can hold serve? De Minaur hasn’t broken serve nearly as much as one would think this season so far, but he’s played some massive servers (Milos Raonic, Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz) and had another match against Djokovic.

I’d expect him to look much better in that department this time out, and with him holding 96% of the time so far in 2024, Arnaldi can ill afford to stumble in his games.

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Lesia Tsurenko vs Rebeka Masarova (Australian Open) Free Pick: Upset in the Cards for Big Serving Spaniard

• Pick: Masarova to win
• Best Odds: 2.80
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 4:30 am UK Time on January 16th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

I think Tsurenko’s last year of results is skewing the odds in this match a bit. While she’s won plenty of matches, she isn’t exactly a dominant force that deserves to be an overwhelming favourite.

For starters, she struggles far too much on serve. That in and of itself means she leaves the door open to playing close matches as she forces herself to break with regularity to pull ahead.

Secondly, she’s not playing a slouch in Masarova. The tall Spanish professional has a big serve and should be able to utilise the quicker courts to generate some cheap points. That also means she may be able to limit one of Tsurenko’s biggest strengths, which is her ability to apply pressure on return in nearly all of her opponent’s service games.

Read on for more expert insights.

Lesia Tsurenko Recent Form

It’s been a so-so start for Tsurenko, who once again has won more matches than she’s lost without being all that convincing in either of her victories to date.

Without much of a serve and the inability to play much first-strike tennis, Tsurenko is oftentimes forced to wait out opponent’s mistakes and hope they don’t manage to play with controlled aggression on a consistent basis.

That is likely to be the case again when she takes the court against Masarova. She’ll once again be outmatched in the power department, and it’ll come down to how well she can defend and extend points.

Rebeka Masarova Recent Form

I was impressed with Masarova’s performance in the opening round and was actually surprised to see she was a fairly clear underdog against Aliaksandra Sasnovich.

Sasnovich is tricky for the complete opposite reason, with her game being more power-centric, but incredibly erratic.

This time around, Masarova will have more time but will have to build points intelligently and look to open up space on the court and hit through with higher-margin shots.

I’m bullish on the Spaniard in 2024 and think she’s been undervalued in both matches so far at the Australian Open.

She is 1-1 on the year, but both matches have come against top-100 players, with the straight sets win against Sasnovich and the loss coming from a set up against Petra Martic.

Lesia Tsurenko vs Rebeka Masarova H2H – Stat of the Match

These two haven’t played before.

It’ll be interesting to see who can come away with the win in this battle of opposite styles and approaches.

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