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Let’s take a look at a pair of matches from the women’s draw. Emma Navarro vs Dayana Yastremska and Clara Burel vs Oceane Dodin both feature underdogs that are presenting value.
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Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on January 19th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
She’s once again an underdog in the third round, taking on a surging Navarro, and I’m surprised to see her price this cheap.
Sure, the American has risen up the rankings incredibly quickly, but I don’t know if she’s really among the 26 best players in the world.
Read on for more Expert Insights.
There’s no doubting her play of late. Navarro won a title last week in Hobart and reached the semis in Auckland during the first week of the season, but I’m of the firm belief that her success to this point has been a byproduct of her scheduling, rather than her sheer ability.
Don’t get me wrong, the strategic decisions to play WTA 125Ks late last year and then the easier 250s, rather than the 500s in Australia certainly helped her find form and pick up wins, but her best wins this season have been against Xiyu Wang and Elise Mertens.
They’re both good players, but only Wang has power that nears that of Yastremska, and both those wins were by the finest of margins.
Her backhand is a really strong shot, but I’m not exactly sure her serve and forehand will hold up under the pressure the Ukrainian is sure to put on them.
At the risk of falling for a blip on the radar in terms of form again, I’d say it certainly looks like Yastremska may be back.
Currently 93rd in the official WTA rankings, but inside the top 75 provisionally, the former top-25 player has been playing scintillating tennis again.
It’s no secret that from the baseline, Yastremska has one of the more powerful games in women’s tennis. The problem? Since she burst onto the scene as a teenager, she still hasn’t been able to really develop any kind of consistency or point construction that would allow her to maximise her potential.
Her 7-1 start to the year (though five of those wins came in qualifying draws) would indicate perhaps she’s ready to turn things around.
Either way, I’m a believer that she’s much closer in talent to Navarro than the odds here would indicate.
There’s no prior meeting between these two to break down.
This makes sense, considering Navarro played a few years in college and spent last year building her ranking to get to the point that she can enter into WTA main draws consistently.
Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on January 19th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
She struggled with rally tolerance and avoiding unforced errors for a while in her early years as a pro, however, that resulted in her languishing on the ITF Tour for a while.
A third-round appearance at the U.S. Open with a win over Karolina Pliskova and another third-round showing in Melbourne that featured a triumph over Jessica Pegula has put the tennis world on notice now though.
The betting markets reflect just that, as Burel – set to make her top-50 debut when the new rankings come out a week from this coming Monday – is a huge favourite against someone who has proven capable on quicker courts and with a powerful game.
I’m not sure I think she should be a heavy favourite against Dodin and will back the powerful serve and forehand of the taller Frenchwoman.
Read on for more Expert Insights.
As I alluded to earlier, Burel has started making it deep into the first weeks of grand slams, with a big-name win along the way.
Sandwiched between the Australian Open and the U.S. Open was a title in Angers at a 125K event indoors, as well as a charge to the semifinals in Monastir. There weren’t many showcase wins, but the ability to consistently win at tour level – even at some smaller events – is a good sign.
Burel has a strong first serve and can dictate play herself using her forehand, and if she can keep the errors under control, she’s a tough out.
The problem is, that the description of that play style suits her opponent here as well.
When they’re both playing their best, Burel is the better mover, but she may well be a tad overpowered.
Another player who was once a member of the top 50 that ran into some problems, be it form or injury, the tall, big-hitting 27-year-old finds herself once again among the top 100 and provisionally ranked No. 91 heading into this match.
She did well for us last time on court, as she beat the topspin-heavy, clay court specialist Martina Trevisan. The fact she was an underdog in that match was fairly indicative of the fact that she is undervalued in the betting markets.
Her first win in Melbourne was even more impressive, against a quicker court specialist in Lin Zhu.
The serve and forehand possess elite power, and if she can keep the ball in play, there are very few players who can track down her shots when she works the ball side-to-side around the court.
Though she shouldn’t be the favourite in this match, she certainly shouldn’t be this big of an underdog.
Much like the last matchup, we don’t have any prior meetings between these two on the pro circuit.
Statistically, Dodin has been posting some elite numbers early in the season. Yes, it’s a small sample and not against the best competition, but it does make sense, considering the warmer temperatures and quick, slick courts in Australia suit her raw power-based game so well.
She’s held at a shocking 90% rate to this point and won an eye-popping 85% of points on her first serve.
Burel also has a decent serve, but her success this year has been more about a strong return game. She’s only held about 70% of her service games and won 65% of her first-serve points.
Numbers like that mean she’s going to need to return well against Dodin. That’s a tall task considering how hard that can be on Melbourne Park’s courts.
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