tennis | Thursday, October 20, 2022 7:30 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA 125K Rouen, Viktorija Golubic vs Jessika Ponchet

Jon Reid

Viktorija Golubic vs Jessika Ponchet Best Bet: Thursday, October 20th

Tuesday’s selection in Marie Bouzkova was a winner, thanks to a dominant first set for the Czech player against her compatriot.

For Thursday, we shift from the big 1000 event in Mexico to the 125K being held in Rouen, France. The match that draws our focus is between Viktorija Golubic and Jessika Ponchet.

In this article:

Viktorija Golubic vs Jessika Ponchet Preview
Viktorija Golubic vs Jessika Ponchet Best Bet

Viktorija Golubic vs Jessika Ponchet Preview

October 20th, 12:00 UK Time

Leading the day off in France, it’s a matchup between a big server and counterpuncher, as Golubic looks to continue her charge for a third career 125K title and to build up her form during this post-U.S. Open indoor hard court.

It’s a match she really should have, and against Ponchet, she’ll fancy her chances to get this one done in relatively clean fashion.

After a hard-fought victory in the opening round against lucky loser Erika Andreeva, she’ll look to spend a bit less time on court against the big serving 26-year-old from the southwestern Basque part of France.

Where Andreeva played an incredibly sound and consistent game from the baseline, Ponchet will be relying heavily on her strong first serve and ending points quickly. The disparity between these two from the baseline is rather large, as Golubic can both dictate and redirect pace, while moving far more efficiently than Ponchet and being a tad more consistent.

For me, if Ponchet – who’s biggest career title came a few months ago at the W60 level of the ITF Tour – was going to overcome the sizable gap in pedigree between these two, she would need something in the matchup that favours her. In this case, it appears the stylistic matchup only makes things worse for her.

Her form hasn’t been all that inspiring and her past against WTA level talent also doesn’t do much to inspire confidence that she keeps things close in this one.

Viktorija Golubic vs Jessika Ponchet Best Bet

When it comes down to it, I have Ponchet ranked as a quality player at the W60 to W100 level on indoor hard courts at the ITF level. Against a typical player at the 125K level, she’s probably a deserved two to three-game underdog.

Now bring in Golubic, who’s an established WTA Tour player, on a surface she’ll enjoy and in a matchup that favours her against said ITF-calibre opponent? That handicap has to be on the other side of four games. Getting a -3.5 games handicap here is worthy of a fairly sizable position.

Important to remember that we’re playing probabilities here. A close match or outright loss are in the overall range of outcomes, but my numbers have this one being covered far more often than not.