tennis | Thursday, September 15, 2022 8:22 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Chennai, Tatjana Maria vs Nadia Podoroska

Jon Reid

Tatjana Maria vs Nadia Podoroska Best Bet: Thursday, September 15th

Another successful day for our women’s selection, as Katerina Siniakova comes through in exemplary fashion. The price was a tad shorter than normal, but still well off the price it should’ve been.

As we look to continue our streak on Thursday, we’ll look for another mispriced match, this time in Chennai, India, as Tatjana Maria takes on Nadia Podoroska.

In this article:

Tatjana Maria vs Nadia Podoroska Preview
Tatjana Maria vs Nadia Podoroska Best Bet

Tatjana Maria vs Nadia Podoroska Preview

September 15, 14:00 UK Time

With this match taking place on a hard court, I’m more than happy to back the veteran from Germany as a short favourite in this matchup for a few reasons.

First off, Podoroska – put simply – has not looked good this season. While understandable, considering she was out for a prolonged period with an injury, we’re not seeing the poor form reflected in the betting markets. After opening her season with a few exhibition events, Podoroska has looked to the lower-level ITF Tour to re-find her form.

Plodding away primarily on clay courts (her preferred surface, and that she’s most comfortable on), she’s put together a decent win-loss record, but hasn’t faced nearly the level of competition that equates to someone like Maria on a hard court.

Next, her hard-court form itself has not been strong. Not only did Maria handle her with relative ease in Granby, she lost badly to a rather erratic player in Anna Karolina Schmiedlova in her opening-round encounter at the U.S. Open. Her lone win of the season on hard courts was last round, beating a relatively unknown player from Japan.

Finally, the matchup favours the 35-year-old as well. She’s far more comfortable on hard courts, in better form on the surface, and has the much bigger serve to find cheap points and alleviate pressure on her serve.

Further, Maria has a strong backhand slice, which profiles really well against someone like Podoroska who has a powerful forehand, but also hits a lot of unforced errors on that wing. A slice not only takes the pace out of the rally, but it is also incredibly tough to generate pace against an effective slice without sailing shots long or wide.

Tatjana Maria vs Nadia Podoroska Best Bet

For all the reasons alluded to above, I make Maria a strong favourite in this matchup. While the breakeven percentage with the current odds sits just shy of 56%, I have her winning this one well over 60% of the time. That leaves plenty of room to take advantage of the mispriced marketplace.

I’ll also look to back Maria on the handicap. When a player is about 1.79 to win the match, but over evens to cover the 1.5-game handicap, both are advantageous positions I’ll look to be backing.