tennis | Thursday, February 16, 2023 10:45 AM (Revised at: Thursday, February 16, 2023 10:56 AM)

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Doha, Jessica Pegula vs Beatriz Haddad Maia

Jon Reid

Jessica Pegula vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Best Bet: Thursday, February 16th

Well that panned out as expected in Doha. In the opening 18 service games, there were just two total breaks of serve, with the bet wrapped up midway through the second set. Lovely stuff from both on serve, with Karolina Muchova’s strong serve getting even more assistance from Caroline Garcia’s position on return.

Onto Thursday, where we’re into the quarterfinals already in Qatar, as we’re a day ahead of the normal scheduling for tournaments. It’ll be the match between Jessica Pegula and Beatriz Haddad Maia that we’ll take a look at.

In this article:

Jessica Pegula vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Preview
Jessica Pegula vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Best Bet

Jessica Pegula vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Preview

February 16th, 14:00 (UK Time)

One of three quarterfinals on the day (the Belinda Bencic and Iga Swiatek match won’t happen, as the Abu Dhabi champion withdrew, handing the world No. 1 a walkover into the semis), Pegula and Haddad Maia could be a fun one.

I’m on the side that sees this as a potentially straightforward affair, however. For my money, the American should find her way through to the final four in Doha without too much fuss for a few reasons.

For starters, Haddad Maia has played a lot the last few weeks and appeared to break down against a strong counterpuncher in good form last week in Abu Dhabi, as Bencic beat her comfortably in straight sets. While Pegula isn’t the exact same player, she too is in form, can handle the amount of pace Haddad Maia brings to the table and can absolutely capitalise on any potential fatigue.

Second, Haddad Maia has looked shaky in big moments several times since the start of last week’s event in the United Arab Emirates. She had match points to close out the match against Yulia Puntintseva in the second set and ended up requiring a third-set tiebreak to finish the job (she also led 3-0 and almost had a double break in that third set).

Wednesday we saw her nearly do the same thing against a similarly underpowered baseline grinder in Daria Kasatkina, when she led 6-3, 5-3 and was serving at 30-15 two points from victory and needed to save set points in the tiebreak to get the job done. That kind of mental fragility is not something you’ll get away with against an elite, top-of-the-tour type like Pegula.

Finally, the matchup should be to the American’s liking here. Her two losses this season have come to women with big serves and overwhelming power that can hit through her and keep her from counterpunching effectively in Victoria Azarenka and Petra Kvitova. Even her second-round encounter where she was in deep trouble but came through was against a big baseline slugger in Jelena Ostapenko. Haddad Maia can hit the ball cleanly, but doesn’t possess that raw power to trouble Pegula.

Jessica Pegula vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Best Bet

It’s not just the situation that should set Pegula up for success. The data also gives her a strong chance to move through.

Her blended hard-court elo rating is about 130 points clear of the Brazilian southpaw’s and her hold plus break percentage is about 20 points ahead of Haddad Maia’s.

Without the raw power needed to really close the gap and trouble Pegula, combined with the struggles she’s had in big moments of late and the amount of tennis played the last few weeks, I’m happy to back Pegula on the handicap here at anything less than 4.5 games.

Selection: Pegula -3.5 Games
Best Odds: 1.92 (Unibet)
Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on February 16th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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