tennis | Thursday, November 3, 2022 10:04 AM (Revised at: Thursday, November 3, 2022 10:08 AM)

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Finals - Fort Worth, Cori Gauff vs Daria Kasatkina

Jon Reid

Cori Gauff vs Daria Kasatkina Best Bet: Thursday, November 3rd

Well she nearly choked it away, but Maria Sakkari brings our bet home for Wednesday on the WTA side of things.

It’s back to the Tracy Austin group on Thursday from Fort Worth, as Iga Swiatek looks to keep the train rolling on her season as she takes on Caroline Garcia, while Coco Gauff and Daria Kasatkina square off looking to keep their hopes alive for the week.

It’s the latter of the two matches that we’ll focus on for our women’s selection from Thursday’s action.

In this article:

Cori Gauff vs. Daria Kasatkina Preview
Cori Gauff vs. Daria Kasatkina Best Bet

Cori Gauff vs Daria Kasatkina Preview

November 4th, 00:00 UK Time

Pretty nice spot here to get right for Gauff, as the young American is another tough matchup for Kasatkina.

If we take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of each in this matchup, it’s quite clear to me that Gauff should have the easier time of the two and should be an even larger favourite than we’re currently seeing in the betting markets.

For starters, while the teenager can be prone to some unforced errors, her ability to hang around in prolonged points is still something to be admired. In what could be a physical battle, she’s also the more athletic of the two, and with both likely to run down a ton of balls and force each other to make that next shot, I trust Gauff to be able to do so over a potentially long, gruelling three-set match a bit more.

With both women being proficient on the return of serve, it really comes down to who is going to be able to find those cheap points at a higher rate to avoid their service games being pressured. That also favours Gauff, with her first serve being far more potent and having significantly more power.

Finally, the two primary weaknesses for the American? Double faults (not much we can do handicap-wise there) and the ability to be rushed on the forehand wing. Luckily for her, Kasatkina really lacks power, and even when she does try to flatten out and target that wing, the courts are likely to eat up any kind of minimal pace she’s able to muster.

With Kasatkina playing a heavy spin and underpowered game, Gauff should have plenty of time to set up on that forehand wing, while her backhand is a legitimate weapon.

Cori Gauff vs Daria Kasatkina Best Bet

Between the fact that she’s far better behind her serve, and that her major flaw isn’t likely to be exploited by her opponent, I make Gauff a sizable favourite in this contest.

The bookmakers agreed, with Pinnacle releasing odds at 1.58. The market has bet Kasatkina heavily enough that we’re currently seeing the odds at 1.76. I’m a firm believer in an efficient market when it comes to betting, but no one’s perfect, and with the implied probabilities of this one sitting at well under 60%, I’m more than happy to get involved here.