tennis | Thursday, June 23, 2022 7:42 AM (Revised at: Thursday, June 23, 2022 7:43 AM)

Thursday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Eastbourne, June 23rd

Jon Reid

ATP Eastbourne BEST BET: DE MINAUR VS PAUL

Thursday, June 23rd, 15:30 UK Time

It’s a great time to be rounding into form, and Australian Alex de Minaur appears to be doing just that.

The 23-year-old has always enjoyed the grass, as someone whose game greatly benefits from the added pace that the courts provide on his serve and groundstrokes, as well as being an efficient mover.

Already having played 50 professional matches on the surface – winning two-thirds of them – de Minaur is no stranger to the ins and outs of grass-court play.

His opponent, Tommy Paul, has also found some form during the grass season, but there are caveats to a lot of his success.

His wins have come against Denis Shapovalov, who is horribly out of form, and Stan Wawrinka, who is still returning from a prolonged injury. He’s also taken down Jannik Sinner, in his first match on grass and since the French Open and is no grass aficionado and Francisco Cerundolo – known far more for his success on clay courts or slower hard courts.

The best two players he’s played on grass this year? Matteo Berrettini and Brandon Nakashima, both losses. I’d opine that de Minaur on grass is closer to the latter two than the first four players in grass-court abilities.

With these two nearly tied statistically over the last 52 weeks in terms of hold plus break percentage, this one should come down to experience and adeptness on the surface and the stylistic matchup between these two.

With both also employing similar styles, it’s worth noting that de Minaur is a bit more aggressive than his American opponent and his second serve has held up at a higher rate than Paul’s, as well.

With de Minaur being a pretty strong returner, that edge on second serve efficiency is the major sticking point in this one.

While neither has the strongest serve and both are more consistent baseliners and athletes, de Minaur does have the edge in a few crucial areas. For that reason, I’m more than willing to give up a very slight head start here on the games handicap.