Mixed martial arts Thursday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Newport, July 14th
ATP Newport BEST BET: ISNER vs BONZI
Thursday, July 14th, 17:30 UK Time
Our Thursday men’s selection comes from the grass courts in Newport at the Hall of Fame Open.
A pair of quarterfinals will take place, including one between John Isner and Benjamin Bonzi.
8-3 this year on the grass this season – and 15-5 dating back to last year’s grass season – Bonzi has taken well to the slicker surface. With losses this year to Stefanos Tsitsipas (twice) and the tricky Jenson Brooksby, the Frenchman has won the matches you’d expect and only lost to a pair of strong players.
His serve has played really well to this point, with a service hold rate of over 91%. Considering he’s playing someone that rarely breaks his opponent and doesn’t move well in Isner, I’m not anticipating consistent pressure being applied when he steps up to serve.
The flip side to the American’s poor return game is that he’s one of the game’s all-time top servers. Standing over 2 metres tall, Isner can hammer down first serves that almost nobody else can.
The key here for me comes down to a few things. First, in a match that is likely to be a serve-oriented affair, Bonzi is the better returner and mover of the two. If a break of serve or two are found, I’d expect it to come from him.
Secondly, because this match appears destined to be decided by close sets and potentially a race to seven points (win by two) in tiebreaks, I’m inclined to believe that neither of these men should only be expected to win it 40% of the time, as Bonzi is in this case.
With the over coming in at a rather expensive (1.84 odds) 25.5 games, I’m much more tempted by just playing Bonzi to win the match (though if available, over 2.5 sets looks interesting as well).
- Selection: Bonzi to win
- Odds: 2.50 (Bet365)
- Stakes: 3/10
Odds are valid as of 8:30 pm on 14th July 2022. Odds may now differ.
