tennis | Thursday, May 12, 2022 7:36 AM (Revised at: Thursday, May 12, 2022 12:25 PM)

Thursday's Tennis Best Bet: ATP Rome, May 12th

Tennis contributor

ATP Rome Best Bet: Giron vs Auger Alissime

Thursday, May 12th, 11:30 AM (UK Time)

On a day without much value on the board, one of the longer-priced underdogs is showing the most value. While clay isn’t the preferred surface for either Felix Auger Aliassime or Marcos Giron, having one priced as high as 5.00 in the matchup is a bit much.

The American’s form prior to this week had been abysmal, and he did lose in qualifying, but he’s made the most of his lucky loser entry to the main draw, beating Alexander Bublik – who absolutely despises playing on clay – and shocking Diego Schwartzman to set up this tilt with Auger Aliassime.

A few points in this matchup make the handicap of 4.5 games appealing. First, Giron’s style could pose problems for the big Canadian. As a defensively-minded player, the slower surface will assist Giron a bit more than his counterpart, whose forehand is known to get inconsistent for stretches and produce unforced errors.

The other point is that in his wins this season on clay against those who can play a grinding style from the baseline, as Giron does, Auger Aliassime has still produced wins, but he’s struggled to win many of them in a straightforward fashion. In a pair of matches against Spaniard Carlos Taberner, Auger Aliassime failed to cover the 4.5-game handicap in both. Frances Tiafoe also managed to cover the 4.5-game handicap, as did Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. While Giron may not be as comfortable on the surface as some of those names, his style can certainly pose similar problems for the serve and power oriented Auger Aliassime.

This line should be in the 3.5 to 4 game range. 4.5 games at even money is worth a standard stakes wager.