tennis | Wednesday, June 15, 2022 1:09 PM (Revised at: Thursday, June 16, 2022 2:09 PM)

Thursday's WTA Tennis Best Bet: Birmingham, June 16th

Jon Reid

WTA Birmingham Best Bet: OSTAPENKO vs YASTREMSKA

Thursday, June 16th, TBD

Thursday’s featured match for the women once again features two massive strikers of the ball, with Jelena Ostapenko and Dayana Yastremska squaring off for a place in the Birmingham quarterfinals.

These two are both rather emotive on the court as well, so when things aren’t going their way, you’ll be sure to hear about it.

For my money, betting on this match to go long – whether betting the over games or over sets (if you have that available) markets – is the way to approach it.

Stylistically, the two player profiles are very similar. Not just because they both wear their emotions on their sleeves and hit as hard as they can almost every shot from the baseline, either.

Yastremska and Ostapenko both also dominate playing on the grass behind their first serves, but have major struggles with double faults and have very attackable second serves as well. While you’ll see your fair share of winners in this one, both are also likely to take neutral rally balls and send them sailing a metre long at any given time.

Further, each is also prone to long stretches of redlining their play, making them nearly unbeatable. With both very capable of doing so for an entire set, it would not be surprising in the least to see each of these women take a set in such fashion, while the other tries to overhit in response, as opposed to trying to weather the storm.

Statistically, these women are also evenly matched. Not just the first serve win rates, double fault percentages and lack of second serve points won, but also in their hold plus break percentages in the last 52 weeks on grass, with both registering marks of 111% and 116%.

From style to statistics to player profile, this match has all the makings of a long one. With the total set at 21.5 games instead of 22.5 or 23, I’m comfortable taking a position on the over.