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Tennis | Thursday, June 9, 2022 7:34 AM (Revised at: Thursday, June 9, 2022 3:08 PM)

Thursday's WTA Tennis Best Bet: Nottingham, June 9th

Thursday's WTA Tennis Best Bet: Nottingham, June 9th
Contributor: REUTERS / Alamy Stock Photo

WTA Nottingham Best Bet: TOMLJANOVIC VS BOULTER

Thursday, June 9th, 15:00 UK Time

After finding some success in Nottingham with the selection backing Golubic against Watson (despite a relatively poor first set from the Swiss), it’s back to England for Thursday’s selection. This time, instead of opposing the British player involved, we’ll look to back them.

With Katie Boulter taking on Ajla Tomljanovic, it should be an enthralling second-round affair from Nottingham, with both women possessing the necessary weapons to succeed on the slick grass.

Two players with games based around serving and hitting from the baseline, who don’t play with much spin and benefit from the flatter balls skidding through the surface. Boulter and Tomljanovic were both pretty good last season on the grass as well.

Yet Boulter’s price in the markets continues to drift out to over 2.40 at many bookmakers.

There just isn’t enough between them for me to have this one with a clear favourite and underdog. I’m sure there is a case to be made for either woman to be a short favourite, but this match is much closer by my estimation than the probabilities would imply.

Further, this has been the case with Boulter since the start of the last grass season. She covered the game handicaps or was within a half a game every time as a favourite, won once as an underdog and took a set from Aryna Sabalenka at Wimbledon as a 7.00-plus outsider.

Statistically, she’s also right there or ahead of the Aussie. Even in terms of the serve, which at first glance one would automatically give Tomljanovic the edge.

Since the start of the last grass season, Tomljanovic’s ace rate and points won behind the first serve rate lead Boulter by less than a percentage point. Boulter is actually much better at winning points behind her second serve as well. Finally, the hold plus break percentage for Boulter on the grass far outpaces her counterpart’s (113% to 102%).

Finally, the movement edge certainly favours the younger Brit, as that has always been an issue for Tomljanovic. Any ball left short that may require a sudden burst forward could be an issue for the big-serving Aussie.

To me, it seems this price is off, especially with Boulter having three wins under her belt already this week – including against another big server in Tatjana Maria, except the German also possesses an incredible slice game, that Tomljanovic doesn’t quite have.

I’ll be looking for the underdog to come through in this one.

  • Selection: Boulter to win
  • Odds: 2.35 (Unibet)
  • Stakes: 3/10

Get more tips for Tomljanovic vs Boulter

Odds are valid as of 10:00 am on 9th June 2022. Odds may now differ. 


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