Thursday's WTA Tennis Best Bet: Wimbledon, July 7th
WTA Wimbledon BEST BET: JABEUR vs MARIA
Thursday, July 7th TBD
Just three matches remain. It’s women’s semifinal day at The Championships and our selection for the day comes from the match between Ons Jabeur and Tatjana Maria. Good friends off the court, both players have been feel-good stories on the court.
In 35 appearances in the main draw of a grand slam tournament, this is the first time the German has been past the second round, going all the way to the semis. As for the trailblazer from Tunisia, 2022 has been a standout year. Jabeur has managed to win two big titles in Madrid and Berlin and now reach her first semifinal at a slam.
Now 21-2 in her last 23 matches since the beginning of Madrid, Jabeur is going to be tough to beat for several reasons.
First and foremost is her elite skill level on the grass. Now the top-rated woman on grass on tour by elo rating, Jabeur’s potent first serve, strong forehand and incredible variety make her a handful to deal with for anyone.
The task will be even tougher for the 34-year-old from Germany, who’s not only in over her head against someone of Jabeur’s calibre, but also matches up poorly, as the Tunisian’s style isn’t bothered by her strengths and her primary weakness can be easily exploited.
Neither the big first serve nor the backhand slice should prove to be tough for the world No. 2. She is incredible at getting her racquet face to serves to get balls back in play and she’s more than willing to get involved in backhand slice exchanges.
Maria’s movement is also a massive concern in this one. Jabeur moves the ball around the court so well from both wings and also has the best drop shot in tennis on the surface. Barring a slew of unforced errors, moving Maria side-to-side should net plenty of cheap points for Jabeur, as should her effective drop shot.
No matter how you slice it, Jabeur is the deserved heavy favourite in this matchup, and while the odds reflect that in terms of the “to win” market, the total may present an opportunity to take a position.
When it comes to taking unders in these situations, we want to make sure the match is likely to end in straight sets and the player we’re backing is capable of posting a lopsided set along the way.
Considering Jabeur has dropped just two sets in her 10 matches played on grass this season and won 14 of her 20 sets by a score of 6-3 or better, she fits the criteria for an under bet. Factor in the incredible talent and matchup advantages she has, and I’m more than willing to back the under here, despite a rather low total.
- Selection: Under 19 games
- Odds: 1.89 (Marathon Bet)
- Stakes: 3/10
Odds are valid as of 03:30 pm on 6th July 2022. Odds may now differ.
