Tuesday's Miami Open Best Bet: March 29th
ATP Miami Open: Ruud vs Norrie Best Bet
Tuesday, March 29th, 16:00 (UK Time)
The fourth round of the Men’s draw at the Miami Open is upon us, with all eight matches scheduled to take place on Tuesday. I’ve chosen to focus on what appears to be one of the more evenly matched ties, featuring two of the top 10 seeds.
Due to a combination of injury and opting to play on the South American clay in February, Casper Ruud has been absent for most of the hardcourt swing in the early months of 2022. However, this hasn’t affected his performance levels so far in Miami, where the Norwegian has impressively dropped just eight games on his way to reaching Round 4.
Ruud’s success in the early rounds can be attributed to his immaculate serving thus far. The 23-year-old hasn’t faced a single break point in either of his victories against Henri Laaksonen (R2) and Alexander Bublik (R3), which is no surprise when you delve into his service statistics for the tournament.
In both matches, Ruud had a first-serve percentage greater than 70% and won over 85% of points behind his first serve – figures well above his year to date average in terms of these metrics. Although it will be tough to maintain such a high level, Ruud will enter this match with Cameron Norrie full of confidence that his service games should take care of themselves.
Despite recording consecutive straight-set wins against talented opposition, Norrie has made it to this stage in less spectacular style than his fourth-round opponent. The Brit has dropped 18 games, of which only three were behind his serve, yet that doesn’t tell the full story.
Across his R2 and R3 matches, Norrie conceded 14 break point opportunities, but fortunately, from his perspective, he saved 11 of them. It’s unlikely that Ruud will be as wasteful in the same scenario, especially considering he has won 48% of points on return at this tournament.
Casper Ruud leads 2-0 in the head-to-head between these two players, with both wins coming on hardcourts. I’m expecting him to continue his perfect record against Norrie on Tuesday. Given that the Norwegian is currently performing at such a high level, I’m confident he can achieve the victory with a -2.5 handicap.
- Selection: Ruud -2.5 games handicap
- Best Odds: 1.94 (MarathonBet)
- Stakes: 7/10
Odds as of 9 am March 29th 2022. Odds may differ now.