tennis | Tuesday, November 1, 2022 9:25 AM

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Finals - Fort Worth, Iga Swiatek vs Daria Kasatkina

Jon Reid

Iga Swiatek vs Daria Kasatkina Best Bet: Tuesday, November 1st

Another monster choke on an article selection, as Ons Jabeur loses after being just two points from victory at *5-3 up in the 2nd-set tiebreak. We continue to see these chokes outnumber comeback wins by a wide margin, really cutting into the profits. Let’s see if we can dodge more incredibly poor luck on Tuesday.

It’s the other group’s turn to take centre stage, as Iga Swiatek takes on Daria Kasatkina, as well as a marquee matchup between Coco Gauff and Caroline Garcia. For our selection, we’ll focus on the former, as the world No. 1 looks to add another trophy to her resume in a 2022 season that has to be considered one of the greatest the women’s game has ever seen.

In this article:

Iga Swiatek vs Daria Kasatkina Preview
Iga Swiatek vs Daria Kasatkina Best Bet

Iga Swiatek vs Daria Kasatkina Preview

November 1st, 23:00 UK Time

When looking at this matchup, one can understand why the organisers saved the Gauff and Garcia match for the primetime slot.

To put it mildly, this is one of the matches on the WTA Tour that screams one-way traffic, and we’ve seen that play out the last few times these two have played one another.

With Swiatek having one of the best seasons we’ve seen returning serve and Kasatkina’s underpowered serve and baseline game, the Russian is always going to struggle to find holds of serve.

On the flip side, Swiatek’s combination of a big first serve, powerful forehand and overwhelming topspin makes it tough for the defensive-minded Kasatkina to find breaks of serve of her own.

Without the Pole constantly coughing up unforced errors, it becomes very difficult to see how Kasatkina can string together enough points to win enough games to keep this one remotely close.

In the four meetings between these two in 2022, Swiatek has won by a combined score of 48-14. Counting only the three hard-court tilts? Swiatek still won by a combined score of 36-11.

Finally, form-wise, Swiatek has lost just one match in her last 15 and has scheduled fairly intelligently to ensure that burnout shouldn’t be a concern for this final week of her season.

Iga Swiatek vs Daria Kasatkina Best Bet

While I’m not a big proponent of using head-to-head matchups in the past as a major portion of my handicap (if one can’t identify why a matchup may be dominated by a certain player, it can lead to bets made without the proper context and necessary edge), this is certainly one where the one-sided record of late comes into play.

As outlined in the preview, the Russian simply doesn’t have anything to really hurt Swiatek’s game. It generally takes a big serve and/or power from the baseline to disrupt Swiatek and hit through her defensive abilities.

Kasatkina may have added some aggression to her game in 2022 (though it hasn’t been seen consistently match to match), but it’s not nearly enough to trouble the most dominant player in the women’s game.

As such, I’m inclined to believe the seven to nine game margins of victory are closer to the norm than outliers at this point.