Tuesday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Hamburg, July 19th
ATP Hamburg BEST BET: SCHWARTZMAN vs RUUSUVUORI
Tuesday, July 19th, 10:00 UK Time
After a nice result from Gstaad on Monday, we head over to the 500-level event in Hamburg, Germany where world No. 14 Diego Schwartzman takes on Emil Ruusuvuori for a spot in the second round.
The 23-year-old from Finland has finally found his footing on the red clay courts this season, but Schwartzman presents a much tougher matchup as one of the better players on tour.
Ruusuvuori tends to find his success on quicker courts and isn’t the most adept on clay (despite the improved record). Most of his wins on tour this season have come against others that aren’t at their best on the surface either (Maxime Cressy, Yoshihito Nishioka, Ugo Humbert, Alexander Bublik and an ageing Feliciano Lopez to name a few).
To beat the Argentine, it generally takes someone not only comfortable and used to playing on the red dirt, but who also excels at clay-court play. Consider the players that have beaten him this year. Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Pablo Carreno Busta (twice) and Grigor Dimitrov account for the vast majority of his losses on red clay this season. The commonality between those players? They’re all among the top-20 in elo rating on the surface.
With Ruusuvuori tending to be a flatter hitter and prone to bouts of erratic play in terms of unforced errors, Schwartzman could be his nightmare opponent on a surface that rewards consistency and strong topspin play.
As a strong mover and defender with excellent point construction and the ability to inject pace into his groundstrokes, despite his diminutive stature, the 29-year-old is poised to be able to exploit his opposition’s weaknesses.
Finally, from a statistical standpoint, Schwartzman leads Ruusuvuori in the hold plus break percentage department by a few points, even though he’s played a much higher quality of opponent. That translates to a gulf of over 200 points in clay-court elo rating between the two.
Whether it be experience, comfort on the surface, stylistic matchup or statistical measurements, I’m comfortable giving up the 3.5-game head start to back the favourite in this match.
- Selection: Schwartzman -3.5 games
- Odds: 1.99 (Marathon Bet)
- Stakes: 4/10
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Odds are valid as of 09:00 pm on 19th July 2022. Odds may now differ.
