Tuesday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: London, June 14th
ATP London Best Bet: Tiafoe vs Wawrinka
Tuesday, June 14th, TBD
There are probably very few players as excited to move from clay to grass on tour as Frances Tiafoe.
After a tumultuous end to his season on the red dirt after making an incredible run in Estoril, Tiafoe is back on the surface where he went 9-3 a year ago, pulling off a huge upset (from a betting markets perspective) against Stefanos Tsitsipas in Wimbledon’s first round a year ago.
The reasoning is simple. While lacking elite weapons, there aren’t many players that can match Tiafoe’s athleticism, court coverage and shotmaking abilities. On grass, however, his serve and groundstrokes become more effective with the speed of the courts, while his athleticism and shotmaking are incredible assets on a surface where the ability to find breaks of serve is so valuable.
Pitted against Stan Wawrinka in the first round, Tiafoe has a terrific opportunity to defend his quarterfinal points from the 2021 edition of this event.
Wawrinka is still only six matches into his comeback from a prolonged injury absence and hasn’t played on the green lawns since the 2019 season.
With his physical abilities still a question mark and Tiafoe’s service hold rate during the 2021 season a spectacular 90.8%, one has to wonder how much success Wawrinka is going to be able to find on return.
The edge in this particular match comes in the games handicap market. With Tiafoe in the 1.50 odds region just to win the match, the games handicap is the standard -2.5 on grass.
That correlated number is just the standard, however, and doesn’t factor in the specific details pertaining to these two players, which should make this number an expensive -3 games.
That’s where we’ll look to take advantage in this first-round matchup.
- Selection: Tiafoe -2.5 games
- Odds: 1.95 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 3/10
Odds are valid as of 03;30 pm on 13th June 2022. Odds may now differ.