Tuesday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Newport, July 12th
ATP Newport BEST BET: MURRAY vs QUERREY
Tuesday, July 12th, Time TBD
The grass season marches on for one final week, as the calendar’s lone post-Wimbledon event on the surface takes place at the Hall of Fame Open in the United States.
After a disappointing end to his European grass season, losing in four sets to American John Isner, elite grass-courter Andy Murray accepted a wild card to play the event, hosted at a venue he will eventually belong to.
Now taking on another big-serving American in Sam Querrey, Murray will look to exorcise the demons of that second-round loss at the All England Club.
The Scot has a great chance to do so as well.
For starters, we know that his serve and groundstrokes play up on the grass. As is the case for most, the quicker courts allow some of the elite defenders with decent pace behind those shots to become much tougher to return against. Their return abilities also become that much more valuable. It’s why the likes of Murray and now seven-time Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic have found so much success on the grass in their respective careers.
Murray was able to hold 90% of the time this grass season, winning nearly 80% of his first serve points and over 57% behind his second serve. Considering he’s playing a lacklustre returner in Querrey in this matchup, Murray shouldn’t see too much pressure in his service games.
Matchup-wise, Murray’s elite returning abilities helped him pick up several wins against players throughout the grass-court season with similarly (or more) powerful serves than the American, and much better baseline games. Murray was able to win (and cover the handicap of three games) against the likes of Nick Kyrgios, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Bublik. His inability to break Isner was both an outlier and due to the fact that the near-seven-foot-tall man from the southern States had an incredible serving day.
Finally, while Querrey’s serve hit a purple patch in Den Bosch and at Queen’s Club for a few matches (mainly against poor returners), he returned to the poor form in the latter stages playing on the grass in Eastbourne and at Wimbledon where he was broken plenty by Brandon Nakashima and the poor-returning and seldom-playing Ricardas Berankis.
From form, to match up, to pedigree, Sir Andy is much better than Querrey and for me the handicap should be closer to four games, indicating a break in each of the first two sets being the most likely in the large range of outcomes, with service order in each set deciding the wager.
At just three games, I’m more than comfortable giving up the head start to the 34-year-old American, even if the grass courts of Newport are known to be extremely quick. I’m also fond of splitting the wagers across a few markets in case the match ends in straights and right on the three games to diversify my risk.
- Selection: Murray -3 games
- Odds: 1.96 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
- Bonus: Murray -1.5 sets (2-0 set score) at 2/10 stakes and 2.02 odds with Pinnacle
More tips for MURRAY vs QUERREY
Odds are valid as of 8:00 pm on 11th July 2022. Odds may now differ.
