tennis | Monday, June 6, 2022 7:01 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, June 7, 2022 1:05 PM)

Tuesday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Stuttgart, June 7th

Jon Reid

ATP Stuttgart Open Best Bet: Cressy vs Stricker

Tuesday, June 7th, 6:00 UK Time

As with the women’s article sticking with the tournament taking place in the Netherlands, we’ll return to the grass courts in Stuttgart for Tuesday’s selection with the men.

With two huge servers in Maxime Cressy and Dominic Stephan Stricker, one would think the overs in this matchup would be borderline unplayable. The expected total would be somewhere in the 25 to 25.5 games range, but without having to buy any half games, this one is available widely in the market at just 23.5 games.

The foundation for this handicap is obvious. The first serves and first ball forehands from these two are undeniably powerful. Over the last weeks on grass – in other words, last grass season – these two both have ace rates over 12%, both win at least 76% of points behind their first serves and both win over half their second serve points.

They also both lack strong return games. Neither breaks at a rate of 20% or higher and Stricker – who is just below that threshold – has found his success on return against an out-of-form Karatsev (even that one involved a tiebreak) and a Challenger Tour level Mats Moraing. Last season his matches in Stuttgart featured six tiebreaks in seven sets.

That’s the statistical reason why this market is off by about one to 1.5 games.

There’s also the stylistic reason I don’t mind backing what seems like too obvious a play here in the game total. For starters, Cressy’s throwback serve-and-volley style is something Stricker hasn’t yet seen on the grass at the professional level. With the serve already posing a problem on return for Stricker, trying to figure out how to return it now adds another layer of difficulty, since just floating balls back centrally won’t do enough. With Stricker a power-oriented player and not the best passer, to begin with, that is a big ask.

On the flip side, Stricker possesses a further advantage on serve in his own right. The big-serving Swiss is a lefty, and that means he can really target the American’s backhand more easily on serve in his own right. Just as Stricker hasn’t seen net rushers to date on grass at this level, Cressy has only played once against a southpaw in his grass career. That match featured a tiebreak and three sets against the big-serving Marc Andrea Huesler (coincidentally, also of Switzerland).

The ingredients for the over are all there. Big servers, power hitters, poor returners and a few matchup advantages all contribute to this games total being off enough to enter the market and stake out a position.